As Tropical Cyclone Zeila subsided, Australia’s Port Hedland and Dampier iron ore ports ramped up throughput, while at the same time iron ore futures in China fell over 2% to below RMB800 ($110) per tonne. These positives are still outweighed by the negative of weak steel demand in China. But for capesize bulker owners, there is hope. Last year’s daily average TCE for Australia-China iron ore voyages was $23,200 compared to $25,691 in 2023. So far this year the average is $3,962 but the first two months are always affected by Lunar New Year so one should not read too much into this data point. More relevantly, the daily hire TCE for a 182,000 dwt capesize increased 90% over 30 days to reach $12,721 on February 21. As the miners put their hard hats back on and get back to work, capesize earnings should improve. Brazilian miner Vale has reported a 2% increase in iron ore production levels to 328m tonnes for 2024, on which it made a $6.1bn profit. While that was down 23%, these are hardly disastrous numbers and the average capesize daily TCE for Brazil-China voyages last year was $22,818, higher than $20,813 in 2023, so the average for this year of $9,013 should likewise be read in the context of a 26% improvement over 30 days to $10,783 on February 21. One year time charter rates for capesizes have reportedly ticked back above $22,000 a day from lows of $18,000, which also points to some confidence in the outlook. As the hangover from Lunar New Year subsides, there has also been good news in the panamax freight markets. For instance, the daily TCE from Santos to Qingdao, a common agriproducts voyage, rose 43% over the 30 days to February 21, to reach $12,022. The parallel voyage from Mississippi to Qingdao added 8% over the same period to reach $15,904. The previously moribund China-Indonesia-China round voyage has sparked into life with rates more than tripling to $10,700 per day, while the China-west coast North America round voyage almost doubled in February to reach $12,214. China appears to be getting back to work too. After a 9% increase in infrastructure spending in 2024, the most recent data show that, to reach its 2021-2025 five year plan goals, the government will have to build another 3,800km of new railway lines this year, issuing new government debt to fund the completion, along with perhaps RMB1trn of capital injections into state banks to pay for more infrastructure. Whether or not it is all actually needed is another question. Geared bulker freight markets also reflected rising activity in Asia in February. The South China – Indonesia round voyage for a 63,000 dwt ultramax bulker was earning around $4,500 a day a month ago but that had recovered to $10,356 on February 21, its first day above $9,999 since December 16. The daily TCE on trips out from the Indian Ocean to Asia added 126%, growing from $8,882 to $11,205 by February 21 compared to January 21. Earnings on trips out from the Black Sea to Asia increased 4% from $11,838 to $12,363 over the same dates. The coal voyage starting empty from South China, loading in Indonesia and discharging on the east coast of India was rated at $11,433 per day on February 21, an increase of 88% over 30 days while the trip from China to West Africa added 33% to reach $10,708. Handysize bulker earnings have also rebounded from recent lows. In the Atlantic, the TCE from the east coast of south America to western Europe rose 17% to $14,782 while the backhaul added 21% to reach $5,993. The