Hormuz reopening optimism shifts sentiment, but flows stay constrained in International Shipping News 25/04/2026 Reopening optimism has softened crude prices, but flows through Hormuz remain constrained, keeping underlying prompt tightness intact. Atlantic Basin differentials are starting to ease on weaker refinery demand and reopening expectations, though downside should be gradual with flows still limited. In the Americas, Midland arbs are improving and supporting flows to Asia, but logistical constraints are likely to cap further upside in exports. Trading Calls Neutral to moderately bullish Atlantic Basin sours: Asian diversification should support demand, offsetting reopening optimism and weaker prompt refinery demand. Bearish WAF diffs: Weaker European and Asian demand should pressure premiums that look unsustainably high. Middle East and Asia: Asian Procurement Shifts as Flows Remain Uncertain June Brent futures settled at $90.38/bbl on Friday, the lowest in over a month, as markets reacted to Iran’s announcement on a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That move has already started to unwind, with Brent back up to around $95 following a re-closure over the weekend and no meaningful vessel activity. With flows still constrained, the market remains sentiment driven, but underlying tightness persists. We expect prices to recover modestly, though upside should be more measured as early signs of flow resumption cap gains. The Brent-Dubai EFS is likely to widen back toward a $10–15/bbl range this week unless there is a clear resolution. On the physical side, the reaction is more muted. Murban differentials are unlikely to spike given disruption had already been priced in, while Asian refiners have cut runs, delaying any recovery in demand. At the same time, roughly 125mmbls of crude has built up in the Gulf, which could weigh on prompt demand if flows resume, limiting upside in diffs. Refiners could shift back to landed economics from here. Midland remains a key swing barrel and is becoming more attractive into Asia after the recent softening in diffs. While still fetching about 40c lower gross margins than Murban, it remains viable as a blending component, particularly with softer freight and FOB values supporting optimisation of trade routes, including shorter hauls via the Panama Canal. That said, the ability of US barrels to continue scaling into Asia may face logistical constraints, which could limit how much incremental displacement of Middle Eastern grades occurs in the near term, as discussed further in the Americas section. Looking ahead, supply diversification is likely to remain a key theme. Even if Middle East flows normalise, Asian buyers are expected to keep some exposure to Atlantic Basin barrels. Japanese and South Korean refiners in particular are likely to continue pulling Midland when economics allow, reinforcing a gradual shift toward non-Dubai linked alternatives and greater flexibility in crude sourcing. Atlantic Basin: Medium sour weakness builds on reopening optimism, but risks remain The potential reopening of the Strait should offer some relief to European refiners, who have been under pressure from weak margins. Simple and medium complexity refineries have been running at losses of around -$20/bbl and -$9/bbl respectively, while deep conversion units are only just around breakeven. Forties differentials have corrected sharply, falling to $13.90/bbl vs spot Dated on Friday from around $21/bbl earlier