Oil prices defy $200 forecasts as markets weigh demand and supply resilience in Oil & Companies News 20/06/2026 As the clash between Israel and Iran intensified, projections piled up that international oil prices could soar to $200, but the outcome was different. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, at one point last month rose to $126 a barrel, but then turned lower and recently fell below $80. Experts say investors focused on the current supply-demand picture rather than future supply shortages. On the last month, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that “the world is in the biggest energy crisis in history.” Some investment banks projected that if the war dragged on, oil prices could rise to $200 a barrel. But the outcome was different. Brent crude, which at one point last month climbed to $126 a barrel, recently fell below $80. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in the United States, said in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) of the United Kingdom, “During Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, similarly apocalyptic oil-price projections emerged but did not materialize,” adding, “The oil market is much more resilient than many people think.” The energy industry worried about supply disruptions from a prolonged war, but investors were seen as placing more weight on the potential for a demand slowdown. Brooks said, “The oil industry was looking at the immediate drawdown in inventories, but from a macroeconomic perspective it failed to fully reflect the possibility of weakening demand.” In fact, even at the height of the war, crude supplies did not come to a complete halt. Major oil producers maintained production capacity, and there was still a possibility of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Aldo Spanjer, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas, told the FT, “Markets tend to focus more on short-term supply availability than on future supply-demand bal