China’s economic stimulus continues to provide support for its steel producers, for global iron ore markets, and for capesize bulk carrier owners and operators. Chinese steel production rose 8.1% in May over April to reach 92.86m tonnes, its highest since March 2023 and up 2.7% year on year. Steel exports also rose 4.4% to 9.63m tonnes. How China is escaping harsher dumping measures must be a function of electoral distraction in Europe and the US. For instance, the UK is about to lose its last blast furnaces, whose Chinese owners say need £600m to keep open. The EU is more focused on EVs than on steel, while in the US there is political aversion to Chinese imports of any kind. Chinese steel analysts report that steel producers are increasing output in June to meet quarterly targets, pressurising the iron ore market and driving an upward trend in capesize spot freight rates. On the Brazil to China route, TCEs rose 18% over the 30 days to June 21 to hit $27,407 while on the C5 route from Australia to China, TCEs rose by 20% over the same dates to reach $28,019. The capesize freight market continues its cyclical upswing from the low point of February 2023. At that time, the Baltic Capesize Index stood at 271 points. On June 21 this year it stood 11 times higher, at 3,142 points. The panamax freight market has been remarkably flat in May and June, disguising some dips and recoveries. Activity in the transatlantic round voyage fell as the South American grain season fizzled out, so freight rates fell from peaks of around $18,000 in late March to lows of $9,000 in early June before recovering to about $13,600 later in the month, mostly due to ballasters exiting the region and heading to East Asia on the back of firmer demand. Hence, TCEs for the voyage out from Western Europe to North Asia added 5% over the 30 days to June 21 to climb over $26,000, where they had last sat in mid-May before falling to lows of about $22,500 in early June. The North Pacific round voyage was steady over the month, with rates hovering between $15,000 and $16,000 a day until they fell to $14,200 or so on June 21, some 9% down on the May 21 level. A similar dip and recovery in TCEs from Northeast Asia back to Europe saw rates fall from around $15,000 on May 21 to lows of around $13,700 two weeks later and back up to over $16,000 two weeks after that. Overall the Baltic Panamax Index moved little from 1,822 points on May 21 to 1,827 points on June 22. Year to date, panamax earnings average $14,600 a day compared to $11,500 a day in 2023, so owners are not complaining. In the geared supramax bulker markets, the S10 average was $14,409 for the first three weeks of June after $15,473 in May, $14,900 in April and $14,650 in March. Seekers of short-term volatility should look elsewhere. The biggest gains were on ultramaxes in the Atlantic, where USG exports to western Europe could earn $21,736 a day on June 21, some 25% up on $17,357 a month earlier. The biggest loser was the South China to Indonesia coal round voyage, which fell 13% over the 30 days to June 21 to sit at $15,656. The West Africa to North China via the east coast of South America ultramax voyage also lost 13% to sit at $16,529 a day on June 21. Overall, the S10 average moved from $15,205 on May 21 to a low of $13,789 on June 7 and back to $15,382 on June 21. The month to date average of $14,409 is down from $15,473 for May and $14,863 for April. The word we are looking for here is drift. The handysize bulk