Goldman cuts 2026, 2027 oil price forecasts after deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in Oil & Companies News 18/06/2026 Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecasts after President Trump announced an interim deal that would lift the U.S. blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz following a scheduled signing on Friday, with the bank now assuming Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than its prior assumption of end-August. The bank cut its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast to $80 a barrel from $90 previously, and its 2027 average forecast to $75 from $80. WTI is now expected to average $75 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $70 in 2027. Goldman said moving the supply normalization timeline forward by a month reduces the fair value of for those periods by around $10 and $5 a barrel, respectively. The bank’s strategists including Daan Struyven said the risks to its supply recovery assumption are “two-sided.” On the upside, they noted that Gulf flows have already risen to an estimated 11 million barrels per day, and that reaching pre-war export levels would require just a 12 million barrel-per-day increase in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war volumes. Saudi Arabia and the UAE could also respond more aggressively to low OECD commercial stocks, while Iranian output could rise further on potential sanctions relief. On the downside, a resumption of regional hostilities or strikes on tankers “might keep shippers risk-averse,” mine clearance could take significant time, and Iran could move to close the Strait again if broader nuclear talks fail, the strategists said. Despite a forecast 3.2 million barrel-per-day surplus in 2027, Goldman expects Brent and WTI to hold near their long-term fair values of $75 and $70, citing limited room for stock builds after large first-half draws and a structural trend of strategic stockpiling exceeding 1 million barrels per day next year. “Some security premium compensating for disruption risk is likely