As war rages in eastern Europe and the Middle East and as China continues its shadow boxing with Taiwan, voters in the US have made clear their distaste for continuing action as the world’s neocon policeman, voting instead for the America first tariffs and borders policy mix. Mr Trump’s drill baby drill policy promises another 3m barrels per day which could come in handy as US crude stocks sit near the bottom of the five-year range at around 430m barrels. US gasoline stocks, at around 209m barrels, are also bouncing along the bottom of the five-year range. Uncle Sam’s thirst for energy is rising, with the US composite PMI higher than in any month since April 2022. Oil markets did not over-react to the election, despite the result having been reportedly on a knife-edge. But increasing geopolitical risk, as both sides in the Ukraine war escalated their missile exchange, did push prices up by around 5% to a two-week high on Friday November 22. Meanwhile, the two leading crude oil importing nations, China and India, both increased oil imports in November, which supported VLCC activity which was down overall. Ship tracking firm Vortexa reported 545 VLCC spot fixtures in the first 24 days of November compared to 840 in the first 24 days of October. The Baltic Exchange rated average VLCC daily TCEs at $34,360 on Friday, November 22, which was some 12% down on the month-earlier figure of $39,205. The month-to-date TCE of $33,109 is down 12% on that for all of October but is the fifth straight month of VLCC earnings in the $30,000 to $39,000 per day. This is a remarkably steady state given the geopolitical noise around global oil markets. It is doubly remarkable if the volume of fixtures has fallen as far as the Vortexa data suggest. Suezmax owners enjoyed October but have not enjoyed November so much, with average daily earnings down a painful 38% over the 30 days to November 22, at $34,460, though they had slumped to $28,495 on November 7 before staging a recovery to $37,627 on November 19. The culprit seems to be weak European demand, especially with the German economy flatlining as the ruling coalition collapsed in October. Month to date average earnings were down 22% at $28,854 versus $37,132 in October. Aframaxes followed suit, with month to date earnings down 27% at $27,643 after $38,044 in October. Europe was again the culprit. The daily TCE on the USG-ARA voyage fell like a broken elevator from a recent peak of $45,998 on October 24 to just $19,537 on November 14, before rallying to $30,685 a few days later. As of November 22 they were down by 40% over 30 days at $26,338. Daily TCEs in the North Sea were down by a third over the same dates, as were cross-Med rates. The Pacific market performed slightly better for owners, or rather slightly less badly – day rates from Southeast Asia to Australia were down 19% over the 30 days to November 22 at $25,800 while those from Kuwait to Southeast Asia were down by 14% at $29,093. The BDTI sat at 908 points on November 22, down 14% over 30 days. It averages 917 points for November after 1,020 for October and 1,108 points for 2024 to date. In the products tanker freight market, weakness on longer haul LR1 and LR2 routes was more than offset by strength in MR routes. The TC1 benchmark products tanker voyage from the Middle East to Japan fell 25% over 30 days to November 22 to $16,409 as businesses took stock of political change in Japan, where a new government was formed in October. The TCE on the p