OPEC hikes 2050 oil demand forecast again, citing world’s pivot to energy security in Oil & Companies News 22/06/2026 OPEC has raised its long-term oil demand forecast for the third consecutive year, now expecting global consumption to rise 19 million barrels/day — or 18% — by 2050, as governments increasingly prioritize energy security, rather than aggressively transitioning away from hydrocarbons. Oil will retain the largest share of the energy mix, with demand reaching 124.1 million b/d by 2050, up from 105.1 million b/d in 2025, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook released June 18. It is an upward revision from its forecast of 122.9 million b/d in OPEC’s 2025 report, which was released in July last year. Since then, energy security concerns have been further fueled by the war in the Middle East, which has led to a significant reduction in output and exports from the region. OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said that many governments are reevaluating energy policy, with concerns about the compatibility of net-zero targets with energy security. “Indeed, there is an increasing realization of the need to balance the elements of energy security, emissions reductions and sustainable development,” he said in a foreword to the outlook. This contrasts with IEA forecasts. Under its “stated policies scenario,” the IEA expects oil demand to plateau at around 102 million b/d around 2030, before gradually declining, it said in its World Energy Outlook released Nov. 12. OPEC said that recent policy changes in the US, the EU and many other parts of the world are supporting oil demand in these regions. “In many cases, these shifts reflect the reversal, delay or cancellation of previously ambitious targets and commitments aimed at reducing oil demand, through substitution or improved efficiency across various sectors in the medium and long term,” OPEC said in the outlook. In the shorter term, OPEC estimates that oil demand will grow from 105.1 million b/d in 2025 to 113