The global trade of ammonia is increasing every year with a rise in trade projected until at least the middle of the century. With ammonia becoming a more popular player in the energy and agricultural industry along with a role in decarbonisation efforts, maritime transport will have to follow suit with a much-needed spike in very large ammonia carrier (VLAC) orders. Ammonia, commonly used in fertilizer production and as a component in chemicals and explosives, is gaining attention due to its low carbon properties which makes it an attractive option for co-firing in power plants and as an alternative fuel in the shipping industry. Production of basic feedstock for inorganic fertilizers accounts for around 77% of today’s annual ammonia use. Another large percentage of ammonia use goes to the production of AdBlue for vehicle NOx control. According to brokers Intermodal, the global trade of low-carbon ammonia is expected to witness a significant surge, reaching around 69m tonnes by 2040. The highest demand will come from Japan and South Korea due to their decarbonisation initiatives. The Middle East and Australia are emerging as major exporters, contributing more than 65% to the global trade volume. 150 dedicated VLACs will be needed by 2030 In its report, Intermodal claimed that the ammonia industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 2.9% in 2023. This upward trajectory is set to persist through 2024 and 2025, with forecasts indicating an annual growth rate of approximately 4%. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said in its 2022 Innovation Outlook that global ammonia demand would increase by more than 40m tonnes per annum by 2030, representing a 20% increase from 2020 levels, with growth driven primarily by rising fertilizer needs due to population growth. Martin Cartwright, global business director for gas carriers and FSRUs at DNV, tells Splash Extra that there are strong ambitions globally regarding increased ammonia production and if a business-as-usual growth scenario continues, production capacity will double by 2050. “For real volume change, you must take note of the next wave of demand coming from the energy sector and other sectors looking to utilise it as fuel. Here we can watch the capacity developments of blue and green ammonia, where large export volumes will be transported by seaborne trade and so we can expect seaborne volumes to increase tenfold,” Cartwright says. Ammonia is typically transported using large- and medium-sized gas carriers. With a surge in demand for green ammonia as both a bunker fuel and a power generation resource, there’s an increasing demand for specialised vessels like VLACs. VLACs are the next generation of very large gas carriers (VLGCs), originally designed to transport LPG, in the 80,000 to 95,000 cu m size range. They are now being engineered to transport ammonia as well. The increasing demand for ammonia as a clean energy source is set to increase the need for these types of vessels. The existing orderbook for VLACs includes 36 vessels, with a significant 83% being constructed by South Korean shipbuilders. They will have dual-fuel propulsion engines. The delivery of these vessels is expected to begin in late 2026 and will peak in 2027 when 28 vessels will enter the fleet. One of the latest orders for such vessels came from Japanese shipping line Nippon Yusen Kaisha which made a deal for three VLACs with HD Hyundai in a deal worth $366m. The first newbuild, according to Clarksons