Volatility entrenched as fertilizer markets confront supply shocks in Commodity News 23/04/2026 Global fertilizer markets are being slowly reshaped by a rare convergence of geopolitical disruption, supply constraints and growing affordability concerns. What began as a regional shock has broadened into a structural challenge across products, with the Middle East conflict continuing to distort product flows, restricting local production and restricting vessels at a critical moment in the seasonal cycle. As a result, prices across nitrogen, sulphur, sulphuric acid and phosphate are being increasingly driven by scarcity and unease in market sentiment rather than consumption or demand. Urea markets are at the centre of this volatility, with India’s latest tender crystallising the sharp upward adjustment in prices. The unexpectedly large volume offered has shifted perceptions worldwide, even as demand outside India weakens rapidly under the weight of these higher numbers. This theme of strong pricing masking underlying demand destruction is echoed elsewhere in nitrogen, from ammonia through urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and is raising serious questions around sustainability into the second half of the year. Beyond nitrogen, supply concerns are acute. Sulphur and sulphuric acid are experiencing historic supply tightness as export bans, shipping concerns and raw materials shortages converge, pushing prices to record or near-record levels. Phosphates continue to draw support from constrained availability and firm south Asian demand ahead of Kharif season, but downstream demand destruction is evident in Europe and parts of the Americas. In Brazil, in particular, there is concern that reduced application rates could lead to diminished yields. Potash remains relatively insulated, benefitting from stable logistics and its position as the most cost- effective nutrient amid soaring nitrogen and phosphates prices. Across markets, participants are navigating an environment whose most defining characteristic is uncertainty. Fragile logistics, opaque policy decisions, and growing concerns over farmer affordability are just three of the issues facing the market. The question many participants are asking is: ‘How long would it take for fertilizer markets to normalise, even if the Strait were to reopen immediately? Estimates vary significantly, from a few months to up to a year. UREA Attention in urea is focused on the Indian tender, which drew higher-than-expected volume, while FOB prices have increased further as the offers reflect firmer netbacks across origins. The tender has driven sharp price increases in several regions, while suppliers are separately keen to place any available spot volume into India as demand in every other region is down because of the recent price surge. FOB prices continue to outpace CFR, meaning most buyers cannot afford current levels. Even demand from Australia, which had been supporting the higher prices so far, is now starting to weaken. India may be able to buy around 2 million tonnes from the 5.9 million tonnes that was offered, subject to final government approval, with prices being the highest level in any tender since November 2021. Russia is expected to be India’s largest source of urea, followed by north Africa, Nigeria, the Black Sea, southeast Asia and potential re-export cargoes. Iran’s supply position remains uncertain, while China is unlikely to have any urea available for shipment in the next two months. Little e