Metals sector faces aggressive Trump ahead of high-stakes USMCA trade talks in Commodity News 08/01/2026 Metals Market Movers 2026: Metals markets are increasingly being shaped by policy as much as by fundamentals. This is the second of our 6-part series that explores how climate regulation, industrial policy, trade policy, and strategic investments are influencing supply, demand and price across steel, iron ore, and critical minerals. A high-stakes review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement scheduled for July 2026 could bring significant economic disruption to the North American economy, including the metals trade. The mandated review was widely expected to be a straightforward evaluation of the trade agreement when it was signed in 2018. However, trade has been a central priority in economic and foreign policy for US President Donald Trump during his second term, and he could take a hardline approach to discussions. Trump may see negotiations as an opportunity for an expansive renegotiation of trade relations, experts told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. Any major changes would reverberate through the global economy and upend trading relations between Canada, the US, and Mexico, which have become closely integrated over the past four decades. The most severe outcome would be a US exit that would suddenly impose double-digit duties on metals and other covered products. Alternatively, Trump might choose to settle or delay any USMCA decision for a year under domestic pressure to avoid risking more inflation, experts said. “This was supposed to be a routine assessment of the agreement with the potential for the countries to make small adjustments that don’t change the core commitments,” said Diego Marroquín Bitar, a fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. “But what is likely going to happen is something much more ambitious, likely more aggressive.” Integrated economies In terms of value, Mexico was the top global supplier of goods to the US in 2024, and Canada was second, reflecting the tightly integrated supply chains, according to US Census Bureau data. USMCA-compliant trade has surged in 2025 as importers and exporters scrambled to leverage the trade agreement to avoid country-specific reciprocal tariffs, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence data analysis. In the three months through Aug. 31, 75.8% of US imports from Mexico and 78.2% from Canada were USMCA-compliant, the data showed. For the same three-month period of 2024, 36.8% of Canadian goods were USMCA-compliant, and 47.9% of Mexican products were compliant. Metals trade between the three countries is especially close-knit. Canada supplied 70% of US imports of primary aluminum in 2024, according to Market Intelligence data. Tough talk Trump has far more leverage going into the USMCA talks than either Canada or Mexico, due to the relative size of their economies, trade experts told Platts. “During these negotiations, the Trump Administration is going to take a very hard line,” said John Boscariol, partner and co-head of the international trade and investment law practice at the Canada-based McCarthy Tétrault firm. Metals are one sector where Canada and Mexico — key metal markets for the US — may hold some leverage, and companies and trade groups would like to see talks rein in Trump’s 50% sectoral duties on aluminum, copper, and steel. “There are some areas of cooperation where it would really be importan