Asian met coal market eyes likely Q1 easing as wet-weather disruptions fade, demand steadies in Commodity News 18/02/2026 This report is part of the S&P Global Energy’s Metals Trade Review series, where we dig through datasets and digest some of the key trends in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, alumina, cobalt, lithium, nickel and steel and scrap. We also explore what the next few months could bring, from supply and demand shifts to new arbitrages and quality spread fluctuations. The Asian seaborne metallurgical coal market could ease in the rest of the first quarter of 2026 on stable Indian demand and a slowdown in China’s buying spree, despite starting the new year with elevated wet weather in Australia disrupting supply, market participants said. Asian seaborne metallurgical coal prices started Q1 on a firmer footing as heavy Queensland rainfall, force majeures and port/logistics disruptions tighten near-term spot availability through January and potentially into February. This coincided with traders’ expectations of India’s restocking needs, which have contributed to firmer prices since the fourth quarter of 2025 until Q1 so far. Prices of premium hard coking coal were mostly sideways through October and November, but began firming up by the end of December as supply-side wet-weather concerns added to market uncertainties. Platts’ Premium Low Vol Hard Coking Coal assessment ended the fourth quarter of 2025 at $218/mt FOB Australia Dec. 31, 2025, up $27.8/mt from the start of the quarter. The Platts PLV CFR China index increased $18.5/mt since the end of Q3 2025 to $205.5/mt Dec. 31, 2025, supported by firmer domestic coal supply fundamentals in China, and intermittent Chinese buying interest from portside arbitrage traders. A more moderate increase in the PLV CFR China index again widened the price gap with the FOB Australia benchmark, with the spread reaching minus $13/mt Dec. 31, a level last seen July 14, when Chinese seaborne demand rebounded, Platts data showed. China’s ability and willingness to pay up for seaborne cargoes were still hindered by weak Chinese steel margins and a softening market in December, driven by ailing prices in its domestic coke market, which saw three successive price reductions totaling Yuan 150-165/mt, market participants said. Heavier-than-usual Australian rainfall a dominant factor Australian coking coal supply conditions have moved to the forefront of the market’s focus since December, as miners adopted a more cautious stance toward spot sales amid early wet weather across key Queensland coal regions. Entering January, ex-tropical cyclone Koji brought widespread rain and flooding to mining operations in Australia’s northern and central Queensland, forcing several force majeure declarations from miners and port operations at the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminalport. Fitzroy’s Carborough Downs mine, Stanmore’s South Walker Creek, Poitrel and Isaac Downs mine, and Pembroke’s Olive Downs, were some of those forced to issue selective force majeure on deliveries as supplies, logistics and mining were affected. “Australian supply has tightened in January due to weather-related force majeures and incidents, which may keep prices elevated in Q1,” according to CERA analysts at S&P Global Energy. While Australia’s rain- and cyclone-season-led supply disruptions historically support coking coal prices in Q1, the heavier-than-usual rains in 2026 have stoked market concerns. The Moranbah Airport station recorde