War, Weather & Tragedy: Why Coal Demand Could Surge in 2026 in Dry Bulk Market , International Shipping News 29/06/2026 G lobal coal demand has been rising over the last couple of years, with new record highs reached in both 2024 and 2025 at around 8.8 billion tonnes, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, growth has slowed and speculation regarding “peak coal” has emerged as the world continues to decarbonize. Advanced economies are phasing out coal in favour of cleaner energy sources, while China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, has expanded its renewable energy capacity significantly. Last year, renewable energy capacity surpassed coal power capacity in China, and coal electricity generation declined by 1.5%, marking the first such decline since 2015. At the same time, with energy security high on the agenda, China is seeking to source more coal domestically to become more self-sufficient in meeting its energy needs and is sourcing more land-borne volumes from neighbouring Mongolia. Using Oceanbolt data, we can see that global seaborne coal trade has declined by 5% over the course of the year as a result. This trend has continued into 2026, with global seaborne coal trade declining a further 0.5% so far this year. Nevertheless, several distinct drivers may coincidentally converge to create a perfect storm in the coal markets in 2026. These drivers are war, weather, and accidents, which could potentially reverse the current declining trend. War The war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a sharp jump in oil and gas prices, as roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through the strait. Facing energy shortages and elevated prices, governments are turning to coal as an alternative fuel source to meet their countries’ energy needs. This shift is already visible in the data. According to Oceanbolt, the global seaborne coal trade jumped 4% year over year in April. However, we are still early