IEA: The Middle East and Global Energy Markets in Oil & Companies News 11/03/2026 The IEA is closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, including the potential implications of continued disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Read the latest statement from IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. The war in the region that began on 28 February has impeded oil flows through the Strait, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels. This is forcing operators across the Gulf region to shut in or curtail a substantial amount of production. The region’s output of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also been significantly impacted. The IEA will continue to assess the energy security implications of the situation in coordination with governments around the world. Current market backdrop Oil and natural gas prices have spiked since the start of hostilities. Brent crude futures climbed by 35% through 9 March, and Dutch TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas, was up by 75%. Moreover, some markets for oil products have been particularly affected, including those for diesel and jet fuel. The global oil market was in significant surplus throughout 2025. Ahead of the military actions that began on 28 February, global oil supply was also expected to far exceed demand in 2026. However, prolonged supply disruptions could flip the market into a deficit. As regional storage tanks fill up, producers in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have announced cuts to their output. Further curtailments of production may become necessary unless export flows resume. Global observed oil inventories rose to more than 8.2 billion barrels in 2025, their highest level since 2021. These stocks now provide a welcome cushion against supply disruptions. Notably, IEA Member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks. These, and a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation, can bring additional supply to market if needed. Natural gas markets had been gradually rebalancing following the major shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A wave of new LNG capacity between now and the end of this decade is expected to transform market dynamics. But markets remained tight in the first two months of 2026, and depleted storage coming out of the heating season in the Northern Hemisphere is set to increase the call on LNG in the months ahead. An extended loss of output from the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar could significantly exacerbate this market tightness. Production was shut down following an attack on the facilities on 2 March. In 2025, Ras Laffan produced 112 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG, as well as 300 000 barrels per day of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and 180 000 barrels per day of condensate, making it the largest LNG facility in the world by some distance. The Gulf region is a key source of exports of refined oil products to global markets, notably for middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. Globally, markets for middle distillates have been relatively tight compared with those for other products, driven in part by sustained imports into European markets. As such, there appears to be little flexibility for refineries outside the region to increase the yield of diesel and jet fuel further to compensate in the event of sustained supply losses. Additionally, the Middl