“This is not 2022”: Strategist explains why this energy shock is different in Oil & Companies News 14/03/2026 The surge in oil and gas prices following the outbreak of war with Iran has sparked comparisons with the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But one economist argues that the current situation is different than the one four years ago in several ways, meaning policymakers may respond differently this time. Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said the obvious question is whether markets are facing a repeat of 2022. While there are similarities, he noted that “there are also some systemically important differences.” The first difference is the scale of the shock so far. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for the global energy system, with roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about a fifth of seaborne natural gas shipments passing through it. A sustained closure could create a shock larger than the disruption caused by the loss of Russian energy supplies. For now, however, market reactions have been relatively contained. Oil briefly spiked toward $120 per barrel but has since traded between the mid-$80s and high-$90s, while natural gas prices have risen much less sharply than during the 2022 crisis. “Markets appear to be betting on a severe but short-lived campaign against Iran, broadly consistent with the more benign macro scenario,” Shearing wrote in a Friday report. Another key difference is the broader economic backdrop. In 2022, labor markets were extremely tight, and inflation expectations were already elevated when energy prices surged. That combination made it easier for companies to pass rising costs through to consumers. Today, labor market conditions are looser across major economies and inflation expectations have drifted lower. As a result, the conditions that previously allowed firms to pass higher costs through to consumers “are much less favourable today,” Shearing said. Policy settings are also very different, the economist notes, as, during the Ukraine shock, interest rates were near zero across advanced economies and negative in the eurozone, leaving central banks well behind the curve and forcing them into aggressive tightening once inflation surged. Now, policy rates are closer to neutral in the eurozone and moderately restrictive in the U.S. and U.K., meaning central banks are not starting from an ultra-loose position. “In 2022, central banks were caught on the back foot when the energy shock hit and had to tighten aggressively s imply to return policy to something like a neutral setting. That is not the case today,” said Shearing. For policymakers, the lesson from the previous crisis is that broad-based energy subsidies are extremely costly and should be reserved for extreme scenarios. Where possible, support should instead be targeted at the most vulnerable households. Markets have already priced out the interest-rate cuts that had been expected in the coming months, a move Shearing views as broadly appropriate. But the bar for renewed rate hikes remains high. With interest rates already around neutral and labor markets looser, Shearing said it would take “a much larger and more persistent shock” — such as a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz — to trigger another tightening cycle. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-14 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElemen