These analysts lifted their forecast for average oil prices this year. Here’s why in Oil & Companies News 21/03/2026 Analysts at UBS have raised their near-term oil price forecasts, citing the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz. In a note, the analysts including Henri Patricot and Nayoung Kim said they now expect average Brent crude futures prices to be $86 a barrel this year, compared to $72 per barrel previously. For 2027, the figure is seen at $80 a barrel, versus a prior estimate of $70 a barrel. “This is based on an assumption that the conflict continues for another 2-3 weeks until early April and that flows via the Strait of Hormuz remain severely reduced, briefly pushing prices above $120 a barrel,” the analysts wrote. Crucially, they said the estimates do not assume damage to major oil fields or terminals. Oil prices spiked to roughly $119 a barrel earlier this week after Israel attacked South Pars, the Iranian sector of the world’s biggest natural gas deposit. Tehran later retaliated with strikes of its own on Middle East gas production facilities, including a major site in Qatar. The strategists added that a gradual resumption from April of flows via the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway south of Iran through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes, will help drive Brent down to $100 a barrel in the second quarter. However, a higher risk premium — the extra price cushion added to account for potential supply disruptions — and the need to refill inventories mean that analysts see prices staying higher through 2027. On Friday, Brent crude futures were last hovering around $108 a barrel. The exchange of bombardments on major energy infrastructure in recent days has fueled fears that, even if the U.S. and its allies are successful in their attempts to reopen shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, supply disruptions will stay in place over the long term. Qatar, whose major natural gas production facility Ras Laffan was hit by Iranian strikes, has said that its export capacity has been reduced by 17% and will take as many as five years to repair. The country is a major gas exporter, especially to Europe, where the regional natural gas benchmark has surged and driven worries over a spike in inflation. The New York Times reported that Iran has continued to launch retaliatory strikes, with countries around the Middle East allied with the U.S. saying they were facing incoming drones and missiles. The paper added that Israel had targeted Tehran after missile alarms were set off in Jerusalem and northern Israel overnight. In a statement cited by the Wall Street Journal, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said “safety must be taken away from our domestic and foreign enemies and given to our people.” It was a message of defiance from Khamenei, the son of slain former leader Ali Khamenei, and came as Israel has been systematically targeting members of Iran’s ruling regime in a bid to bring about its collapse. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said U.S. President Donald Trump had asked Israel to hold off on future attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. The White House has been racing to quell markets jittery about the protracted oil price shock, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting that Washington could release more emergency oil reserves and even lift sanctions on some Iranian crude exports to help ease supply constraints. Source