US gasoline stocks near critical low as exports face summer strain: CERA in Oil & Companies News 10/06/2026 US gasoline inventories are approaching operational minimums that could force a sharp pullback in exports just as the peak summer driving season intensifies demand, threatening to push refining margins to record levels, according to S&P Global Energy CERA. “If you just follow the trajectory down, very similar to what happened in 2025, sometime in the next few weeks we will reach a level where the US can’t go much lower,” Richard Joswick, head of oil pricing and trade flow analytics at CERA, said in a June 4 webinar. “It’s not an absolute minimum operating number — no one knows what that is — but it’s an effective limit on exports,” he said. Total US gasoline stocks have declined steadily since late February and are now tracking below 2025 levels, reflecting surging exports to offset global supply disruptions from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Combined US commercial crude and product inventories have fallen approximately 480 million barrels from late February through May 22, averaging draws of 5.7 million barrels/day, according to Energy Information Administration data. Regional supply tightens The constraint stems from operational realities in petroleum supply systems. When storage tanks are depleted, exporters cannot accumulate sufficient volumes to fill vessels efficiently, effectively capping export capacity regardless of price incentives. The supply squeeze is most acute on the US Atlantic Coast, where stocks have drawn more sharply than the national average. The region’s dependence on waterborne supply from the US Gulf Coast and limited local refining capacity — which has declined by about 400,000 b/d since 2019 — has amplified the tightness. Waterborne imports of gasoline and motor gasoline blending components into the Atlantic Coast averaged 537,000 b/d in May and have risen to 664,000 b/d in June as of June 8, according to S&am