How is energy transition investment evolving in 2026? in Port News 16/04/2026 The energy transition presents US$3 trillion to US$6 trillion annual investment opportunity , but it also raises important questions that must be answered to ensure capital deployment generates returns to stakeholders. What role should equity play in driving the transition? What are the biggest market and technological shifts? And how could investment requirements change under different transition trajectories? Wood Mackenzie’s Lens Energy Transition Scenarios solution leverages our proprietary scenario modelling results and cost-of-supply intelligence across the energy and resources value chain – providing an in-depth toolkit to help investors navigate the rapidly evolving energy investment landscape. Fill out the form at the top of the page to download an extract from the full report, or read on for a brief overview of key themes. Global energy and infrastructure investment is rising despite geopolitical uncertainty Our detailed energy transition modelling is based on four potential scenarios, outlining four different energy transition pathways to 2060: • Base case (‘energy evolution’): Renewables surge but meet only incremental demand, resulting in an average global temperature rise of 2.6 °C • Delayed transition (‘energy dominance’): security fears slow clean energy momentum, with fossil fuels filling the gap; temperatures rise 3.1 °C • Country pledges (‘energy resilience’): A coordinated, pragmatic and decisive shift to clean energy results in a temperature rise of 2 °C • Net zero (‘energy innovation’): A wholesale rewiring of the energy system keeps average global temperature rises to 1.5 °C Based on our analysis of these possible pathways, the energy transition presents an immense US$130 trillion to US$175 trillion investment opportunity globally between now and 2060. Under the net zero pathway, half of total capex would need to go to electrification and infrastructure (see chart below). Mature technologies will dominate overall spend, as policy makers prioritise cost efficiency and supply security. Despite significant geopolitical uncertainty, energy sector investment is rising. Capex spending reached US$3.3 trillion in 2025, and is on track to exceed US$3.8 trillion by 2030. Power supply and grid infrastructure still dominate spending; however, transition momentum has slowed, with EV spending downgraded from previous expectations and oil and gas investment rising to meet near-term demand. Spending is increasingly concentrated in major economies, with China clearly in the lead Under our base case, China, Europe and the US account for 70% of global capex to 2040 between them (see chart below). China alone will invest 30% of total global capex, focusing on power expansion, electrification and efficiency to target lower costs and ensure supply security. In developed markets, subsidies, carbon taxes and higher energy prices have already achieved easy wins by pushing heavy emitters to adopt commercial lower-carbon and abatement technologies. Remaining last-mile emissions will typically need to be addressed through more costly investment in the development of early-stage technologies. In Europe, modest demand growth will spread spend across technologies; by comparison, the US will see greater demand growth but will benefit from abundant gas and renewable resources. Financing gaps remain acute in developing economies due to high borrowing costs and risk Devel