Most GCC Sovereigns Have So Far Shown Resilience to Iran War in World Economy News 22/04/2026 Most Fitch-rated Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sovereigns have proved resilient since the start of the US-Iran war, Fitch Ratings says. A re-escalation of hostilities to greater intensity than before the ceasefire or a more prolonged disruption to economic activity, would further test their resilience, both to immediate and longer-term risks, and would exert more pressure on ratings than has to date been the case. Fitch placed the sovereign ratings of Qatar (AA) and Ras Al Khaimah (A+) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) in late March and early April, respectively. In Qatar’s case, the RWN reflect factors including the adverse impact of the strike on the Ras Laffan LNG gas complex and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For Ras Al Khaimah, it reflects the potential negative impact on medium-term growth. The war has not led to rating or Outlook changes for the other Fitch-rated GCC sovereigns, even after hostilities continued beyond end-March. Our original expectation had been that the conflict would conclude within one month, but it has persisted, extending the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Among GCC sovereigns, Oman (BBB-/Stable) is most insulated from the conflict because its exports do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, higher oil prices are beneficial to its key sovereign credit metrics. Oman is the only GCC sovereign for which Fitch improved its 2026 real GDP growth and fiscal balance forecasts in the most recent Sovereign Data Comparator, published on 31 March. Saudi Arabia (A+/Stable) and the UAE/Abu Dhabi (AA-/Stable and AA/Stable, respectively) have also benefited from their ability to continue exporting large quantities of hydrocarbons via pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Rerouting and short-lived damage to energy infrastructure has reduced export and therefore production volumes, but the offsetting impact of higher prices means oil export revenues are in line with pre-war levels for UAE/Abu Dhabi and above them for Saudi Arabia, supporting public finances. Kuwait (AA-/Stable) does not have alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and its economy is much more oil-dependent than those of Saudi Arabia and UAE. This means the disruption to production and exports will have a substantial impact on the economy and public finances until normal flows resume. However, this is significantly mitigated by Kuwait’s balance sheet that is the strongest in the region. Government debt is low and sovereign net foreign assets are the highest of any Fitch-rated sovereign and equivalent to 12 years of 2025 expenditure. Bahrain (B/Stable) is the lowest-rated GCC sovereign. Its key mitigant against the impact of the war is the prospect of credible and ongoing support from other GCC sovereigns. Funding commitments secured since the war started, such as a c. USD5.3 billion swap line with the UAE, reinforce our view that support will be forthcoming. However, the risk of renewed flare-up is significant. Potential sources of pressure for GCC sovereign ratings include greater disruption to their ability to export oil and gas due to significant damage to energy production, processing and transportation assets; a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and for Saudi Arabia, disruption of shipping through the Red Sea. A possible ground invasion of Iran or the destruction of Iranian energy infrastructure could prompt