TRADE REVIEW: FOB Australia alumina prices to face continued supply pressure in Q2 in Commodity News 17/04/2026 This report is part of the S&P Global Energy’s Metals Trade Review series, where we dig through datasets and digest some of the key trends in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, alumina, cobalt, lithium, nickel and steel and scrap. We also explore what the next few months could bring, from supply and demand shifts to new arbitrages, and to quality spread fluctuations. FOB Australia alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure in the second quarter of 2026 as structural oversupply persists. As the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East forced smelter curtailments toward the end of the first quarter, alumina demand fell faster than supply adjusted, resulting in surplus material flowing into the spot market and limiting the potential for a sustained price recovery, despite intermittent regional arbitrage opportunities. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the FOB Australia alumina price at $304 per metric ton on April 15. It averaged $306.91/mt in Q1, down 2.82% quarter over quarter. The Platts CIF China alumina assessments averaged $331.36/mt in Q1, down 2.03% quarter over quarter, with Q1 averaged Chinese domestic alumina prices declined 5.49% quarter over quarter to Yuan 2,659.59/mt ex-works Shanxi. The weekly Brazilian alumina premium to Australian material rose 10.22% quarter over quarter, averaging $28.50/mt in Q1. Geopolitical turmoil The escalation of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran since late February has disrupted industrial operations and logistical flows, with the impact most significant across the Middle East. These developments increased volatility across the aluminum value chain while further intensifying structural oversupply pressures on seaborne alumina — the key raw material for primary aluminum production. Initial market impact was driven by disruptions to industrial operations and logistics following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. On March 3, QatarEnergy announced plans to halt selected downstream production, including aluminum, after military attacks on facilities in two industrial cities. In response, Hydro issued a force majeure to customers of its Qatalum joint venture, citing a controlled shutdown after gas supplies were reduced. On March 12, QatarEnergy confirmed it would continue gas deliveries at reduced levels, allowing Qatalum to stabilize aluminum production at around 60% of nameplate capacity. While this eased immediate supply tightness, operating rates remained materially below normal levels. In Bahrain, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) declared a force majeure on metals output from its 1.6 million-mt/year smelter on March 4. The company subsequently said on March 15 that it had begun shutting down three potlines, representing around 19% of its 1.62 million mt/year aluminum capacity, citing ongoing logistics disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Continued disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz led Gulf aluminum producers to reassess both export and import routes, increasing logistical complexity and costs amid heightened uncertainty over delivery timelines and freight availability, particularly for smelters in the region reliant on imported alumina supplies. Risks intensified toward the end of the quarter following direct attacks on major smelting facilities, with material implications for regional alumina demand and balance. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) co