VLCC Tanker Markets Sizzling Hot in Hellenic Shipping News 02/03/2026 Rates for VLCC tankers have been rallying hard over the past few days. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “the VLCC market has reawakened with force. Benchmark TD3C earnings have surged to above $200,000/day, a level not seen since May 2020. The scale and speed of the move has upended market expectations. The move is not simply a function of rising cargo volumes; it reflects tightening tonnage availability, expanding tonne-mile demand, concentrated ownership, and an increasingly fragile geopolitical backdrop”. According to Gibson, “the rally is first rooted in fundamentals. OPEC+’s decision last year to begin unwinding crude production cuts pushed regional crude exports to nearly 17 mbd in Q4 2025, an increase of about 1.3 mbd from Q1. Several additional factors also contributed at the time, including the seasonal drop in direct crude burn, extensive refinery maintenance, outages at Al Zour, strong West to East crude flows driven by wide arbitrage opportunities, and, as always, a significant geopolitical backdrop. Although export volumes dipped in January and OPEC+ opted to pause further production increases this quarter, preliminary AIS data for February shows that export levels have climbed back close to their highest point since April 2023, only slightly below the volumes recorded in November 2025, supported in part by additional regional turnarounds. Simultaneously, Asian refiners’ ongoing efforts to diversify crude intake have further supported the market. India’s continued pivot away from Russian barrels is particularly notable. Replacement barrels from the Atlantic Basin, including renewed Venezuelan exports are increasingly supplementing Middle Eastern grades, favouring VLCC liftings and driving up the tonne miles of mainstream vessels”. The shipbroker added that “as cargo volumes have provided the base, fleet dynamics have served as the accelerant. The market received an additional jolt from a wave of vessel acquisition since the start of 2026. With only a handful of active buyers and transactions increasingly concentrated, VLCC ownership is becoming more consolidated. Any minor tactical withholding of vessels can amplify tightness. This impact is visible not only in the spot market, but also in time charter and secondhand values, both of which have strengthened significantly. Moving forward, the narrative may be less about cargo count but more about bargaining power”. Meanwhile, “geopolitics have added a further layer of momentum. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, the massive US military buildup in the region, increasingly direct and forceful policy enforcement by the Trump administration, and Iran’s brief live‑fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month are collectively injecting significant geopolitical uncertainty into markets and adding a risk‑related premium to rates for voyages originating from the Middle East Gulf”, the shipbroker said. Source: Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd “Looking ahead, the supportive pillars remain largely intact in the short term. On the supply side, Middle East refinery turnarounds extending into second quarter will continue releasing barrels into the export market. Furthermore, OPEC+ reportedly is planning to resume the unwinding of output cuts in April, which could further boost regional export volumes. Crude diversifying efforts will continue as geopolitical risks evolve, keeping interest in long