The Commodities Feed: Oil eases as report suggests war could end without Hormuz reopening in Oil & Companies News 31/03/2026 Energy – Oil eases as report suggests war could end without Hormuz reopening Oil edged lower Tuesday morning after the Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump told aides he would be willing to end the military campaign in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The pullback came despite another Iranian attack on a tanker in the Persian Gulf, with Brent trading around $107 a barrel in early trade. On Monday, President Trump said a deal to end hostilities remains possible. He also threatened potential attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, including the Kharg Island export terminal. Despite pulling back, Brent is on track for a record monthly gain, with prices up around 60% in March. The US benchmark is up more than 50% in March after closing yesterday above $100 a barrel for the first time since July 2022. Crude opened the week higher after Iran‑backed Houthi militants in Yemen entered the conflict and additional US troops arrived in the region, raising concerns over shipping disruptions. The risk to the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait – a critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea to global markets – has resurfaced, with the Houthis having previously shut the Red Sea to most Western shippers after war in Gaza began in 2023. Meanwhile, Iran has moved to formalise its control over the Strait of Hormuz, restricting vessel movements while allowing limited traffic, including ships from Pakistan, Thailand and Malaysia. Two state-owned Chinese container ships were also trying to exit Hormuz on Monday. A toll or selective access through Hormuz would keep a persistent risk premium in oil, as flows could be curtailed at short notice, while higher insurance and freight costs lift delivery prices even without a full shutdown. In refined products, US retail gasoline prices are hovering around $4 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. A sustained move above this level would mark the first breach of this psychological threshold since 2022, adding pressure on both household and business fuel costs. Metals – Aluminium rallies on Middle East supply risks Aluminium prices rallied on Monday, briefly nearing $3,500/t on the LME, as Middle East supply risks escalated. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said it sustained significant damage at its Abu Dhabi smelter, while Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) is assessing the impact at its facility, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said the sites were targeted in retaliation for US‑Israeli strikes. Together, the two smelters account for around 3.2Mt of annual capacity, and any prolonged outage would further tighten an already constrained market, where restarting smelters is costly, complex and time-consuming. Both companies have yet to provide details on the extent of the damage. Aluminium is on track for a monthly gain of 10%. The escalation comes on top of already tightening supply conditions across the Gulf. Recent curtailments at Alba and reduced operations at Qatalum have already affected around 560kt of annual capacity, equivalent to roughly 8-9% of regional supply. The Middle East produces around 6-6.5Mt of aluminium per year, accounting for roughly 9% of global primary aluminium supply. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) smelters are highly export‑oriented, with a large share of output sold into international markets rather than consumed domestically.