EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2027 in Oil & Companies News 10/07/2026 “Expectations of increasing oil supply and moderating inventory draws have caused oil prices to fall,” the EIA said. Brent averaged $85/bbl in June, down $22/bbl from May and $32/bbl below its recent peak in April 2026. The agency expects global oil inventories to build over the next year, a trend it believes will continue to weigh on crude prices. However, Brent has moved higher on the day after Iran reportedly attacked three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, prompting US military retaliation and escalating regional tensions. Supporting prices further, the US Department of the Treasury (DoT) revoked a sanctions waiver that had temporarily allowed transactions involving Iranian-origin crude oil and petrochemical products following the renewed attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Supply and demand estimates The EIA expects global oil inventory draws to slow to 2.2 million b/d in the third quarter of 2026, compared with its previous forecast of more than 7 million b/d for June and 5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026. “More oil production and the reestablishment of trade flows will result in less oil being taken out of inventory in the coming months than we previously forecast,” the agency said. With oil flows resuming, the EIA now expects fewer disruptions to Middle East crude production than it projected previously. Production shut-ins averaged 8.3 million b/d in June after peaking at 11.2 million b/d in May. The agency expects most crude production and trade flows to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year. It forecasts an average of 1.4 million b/d of production will remain shut-in during the fourth quarter of 2026, with most of the offline volumes returning in the first quarter of 2027. Although Middle East oil production and exports are expected to increase in the coming months, the EIA said it will take time to rebuild significan