Iron ore is sometimes called a “pretty boring cargo”, but it is “essential”. These were the opening remarks by moderator Tim Huxley to the final session at this month’s Geneva Dry conference, with the following 60 minutes’ iron ore chat being anything but dull. “This year we’ve had the best start to a year since 2010, really all driven by counter cyclical tonne miles in the Atlantic and first quarter iron ore shipments,” said Huxley, the CEO of Hong Kong shipowner Mandarin Shipping. Weather issues in Brazil, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, congestion in China and Australia, and booming coal and bauxite shipments all contributed to a “surprisingly” solid first quarter, said John Michael Radziwill, CEO and chairman of Monaco-based C Transport Maritime. “West African bauxite has become much more important and is very much interlinked with iron ore in terms of volumes,” said William Fairclough, managing director of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings. Another surprise, according to Derek Langston, global head of dry cargo research at Braemar, has been the reemergence of Ukrainian iron ore exports, principally to China, with volumes now getting back to pre-war levels. Quizzed about the ongoing headlines surrounding US tariffs on Chinese products, Langston dismissed them as unimportant from a global volumes point of view. There are three things you can be sure of: death, taxes, and John Michael Radziwill is never going to order a new ship “I don’t think anybody in China, any Chinese steel mills, are going to worry about that threat from the US too much,” he told delegates. The discussion then turned to the impact of the advent of green steel, something that will have significant ramifications for global seaborne iron ore volumes going forward. Wah Kwong’s Fairclough noted how China is installing more renewable energy capacity than the rest of world put together, while it was left to Braemar’s Langston as the sole analyst on stage to give an in-depth explanation into how steel mills can go green. The easiest way, Langston said, would be to recycle, but there is not enough recyclable steel in the world. There is also the direct reduced iron (DRI) method, adding a supplement into electric arc furnaces, ideally using green hydrogen in the process, something that is currently underway at two mills in Europe. To produce steel via DRI requires high grade iron ore, not just in terms of Fe content, but also low impurity, something that is spurring the development of the huge Simandou iron ore mine in West Africa where first exports are scheduled to be shipped next year. With this green transition, Langston told the nearly 600 delegates attending Geneva Dry: “There are going to be new trades emerging. There are going to be new centres of steel production.” Langston suggested both the Middle East and Australia would become more prominent as steel manufacturers. “It’s going to help tonne miles, definitely,” said Radziwill, discussing the imminent opening of the Simandou mine. “ First of all, it’s a new source, right? So that’s going to be a plus for seaborne movements.” This, he then transposed onto the “pretty compelling” supply side, which sees just 37 capes due for delivery this year, at which point the moderator asked Radziwill whether he’d be ordering a ship. “Not me,” Radziwill fired back. “There are three things you can be sure of: death, taxes, and John Michael Radziwill is never going to order a new ship.” Radziwill did say he might b