US-Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz— but full container shipping recovery at least three months away in International Shipping News 20/06/2026 T he US-Iran deal should allow a return of container shipping to the Strait of Hormuz, but the scale of disruption caused by the blockade means, even a best-case scenario, puts a recovery of ocean supply chain networks at mid-September 2026 and spot rates rising for at least another four weeks before the market peaks. “This agreement should be greeted with realism and extreme caution,” said Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta – the ocean and air freight intelligence platform. “Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.” The Scale of Disruption Before the crisis, 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf, deploying a combined nominal capacity of 3.2 million TEU – around 10% of the global container fleet. Only 11 services remain active due to the blockade — 10 operating intra-Arabian Gulf and one dedicated Iran-China service — representing just 74,000 TEU of active capacity in the region. 488 vessels were deployed on those 99 services before the conflict escalated at the end of February; just 18 remain on Arabian Gulf routes today, with 470 ships operationally diverted or displaced across the global network. The ripple effects of this disruption are visible in spot rates across all major trade lanes – even those that do not ordinarily transit Strait of Hormuz, such as the Transpacific to US West Coast. In the past week alone, rates jumped a further +29% on Far East to US West Coast and +25% on Far East to US East Coast. Sand said: “Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharge increases in July and fears over available capacity, with many being told ships are full on trades out of Asia for wee