Australian alumina industry group warns of global supply chokepoint in Commodity News 10/03/2026 The Middle East conflict is raising some critical questions for major alumina and bauxite supplier Australia, the country’s leading industry association said. The Platts-assessed US aluminum premium reached a high of 110.95 US cents/pound, plus London Metal Exchange cash, delivered in the Midwest, on March 6. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy. The LME aluminum 99.7% cash price also rose to $3,493.40/metric ton on March 6, the highest level since March 30, 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The rising aluminum prices reflect a “tight global market,” the Australian Aluminium Council said in a LinkedIn post March 6. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the “closure of the Strait of Hormuz” on March 2 after joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran, saying any ship attempting to pass would be a target. “With the Gulf region producing about 9% of global aluminum capacity, the current conflict raises important questions about the potential impact on the global industry — and what it could mean for Australia,” the AAC’s post said. “The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for both alumina imports and aluminum exports. For smelters in the region, a secure alumina supply will be crucial — much of which currently comes from Australia,” the AAC said. “Alumina prices are already under pressure, and these developments may add further volatility,” it added. Australia is the world’s second-largest alumina producer, accounting for over 13% of global supply, according to a report by L.E.K. Consulting released March 5 by the AAC, which commissioned it. Australia also accounts for about 25% of global bauxite production, supplying the aluminum-bearing minerals that are refined and smelted in Australia and around the world, according to the report. The AAC warned that “this is a rapidly evolving situation … the full implications will become clearer in the days and weeks ahead, and it will be important for industry participants to monitor developments closely.” Citi Research analysts said in a March 4 note that “inbound raw material disruption (e.g., alumina/bauxite) can force measured/controlled reductions to protect pot integrity.” However, Citi Research’s understanding is that Middle Eastern smelters can carry about three weeks of alumina inventory as a “working assumption,” according to the company’s note. “A disruption of inbound flows persisting beyond this window could begin to constrain operations, although smelters retain the option of undertaking preventive reductions or closures to extend inventory life if feedstock interruptions start to materialize,” Citi Research analysts said. Shift from risk to disruption Citi Research raised its LME aluminum 0-3-month point target to $3,600/mt from $3,400/mt, with a $4,000/mt “bull case if disruption deepens,” the company said. Citi Research’s bear case was also adjusted to $2,900/mt to “reflect a higher cost floor and elevated geopolitical risk.” The company’s analysts said the force majeure materializing at two Gulf producers marked “a clear shift from risk to realized disruption.” Norsk Hydro ASA issued a force majeure notice to customers of its joint venture Qatalum smelter in Qatar’s Mesaieed Industrial City, as the facility undergoes a controlled shutdown due to a halt in its gas supply, the company said in a March 3 statement. The smelter is a 50-50 joint venture owne