Oil prices continued to rise in February and March with WTI increasing from $76.49 on February 23 to $80.63 on March 22. Over the same period, the OPEC basket price increased from $82.23 to $85.56. Traders pointed to OPEC+ continuing its production cap, to improving economic conditions in China, and to rising geopolitical tension, particularly a Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian refineries. This has caused an estimated 10% cut in Russian refinery output which in turn has led to a gasoline export ban until the end of May (for now). There is talk of Russia switching to crude oil exports. Urals crude prices continue to be volatile but over the month to March 22 they increased from $71.78 to $72.40, a tempting discount even to US crude prices, for those willing to pay over the $60 price cap and ship the oil on uninsured dark fleet tankers. VLCC earnings edged up in 3% March to date, averaging $48,773 compared to $47,332 in February, though the monthly average smoothes a mini rollercoaster ride from a low of $39,890 on February 29 to a peak of $51,090 on March 5, then a fall to a low of $46,386 on March 8 before another peak of $57,235 on March 18 only for rates to fall again to $44,240 on March 22. On the benchmark TD3C from the Middle East to China, average VLCC TCEs have flipped from below $40,000 to over $60,000 and back again to $43,600 in March. If future troughs and peaks on this volatile ride continue to be higher than past troughs and peaks, then we can expect rates to exceed $60,000 as we approach the usual seasonal peak in late March / early April. Or perhaps the peak has already passed as European refiners are said to be planning greater than usual outages in April for maintenance – 1.2m barrels per day – ahead of summer peak driving demand. Some traders expect lower EU oil demand and plentiful supply now that global supply chains have absorbed the disruption of avoiding the Suez Canal, resulting in a possible softening of shipping demand in the coming month, at least to European destinations. This could be why suezmax earnings have lost 17% in March to date compared to February, i.e. from a monthly average of $45,023 to $37,548. Rates from West Africa to UK/Cont have been rangebound in March, averaging just over $38,000 with occasional bumps over $40,000. Cross-Med suezmax earnings have softened from over $46,000 in late February to dip below $40,000 on March 8 and slide gently to $38,500 by March 22. Aframax daily hire rates followed suit with March averaging $39,730 so far, down 14% on $46,416 for February. The biggest falls have been in the North Sea, where daily TCEs for discharge in the UK are down 13% to $37,169 in the 30 days to March 22, and daily TCEs for discharge in Germany are down 25% to $41,105 over the same dates, though they actually bottomed out at closer to $25,000 early in March. Aframax TCEs on the Kuwait to Singapore route were relatively stable, adding 3% over the month to March 22’s $45,263 having peaked at over $47,000 a week earlier. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has slipped below expectations in March to 1,185 from 1,263 in February. The first quarter average of 1,293 to date has a little way to go to match Q1 2023’s 1,404 points which it really must to if the markets are to live up to the hyperbole of recent months as well as the high valuations being put on secondhand tonnage. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index has tracked the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, registering a small fall from 1,101 points in