US refiners stretched thin by domestic demand, surging exports: CERA analysts in Oil & Companies News 02/06/2026 North American refined product markets have tightened further in recent weeks, with inventories falling to fresh lows and export flows accelerating beyond already-elevated levels, as the ongoing disruption to Middle East supply continues to reverberate through global trade, according to S&P Global Energy’s June North America Short-Term Outlook for Refined Products. While CERA’s May outlook highlighted the structural shift in trade following the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the June update points to a more acute phase of the disruption: inventories are now critically low, price gains are broadening across products and US refiners are increasingly stretched balancing domestic needs with surging export demand. “US diesel inventories plunged again in May, hitting multi-decade lows as surging exports tightened domestic balances,” analysts said, underscoring the severity of the drawdown. Total US distillate stocks fell to just above 100 million barrels in late May, the lowest level in more than two decades, with forecasts pointing to a drop below that threshold in June. Platts assessed the benchmark US Gulf Coast ULSD outright price up 2.82 cents on May 28 at $3.5096/gal, breaking a two-day losing streak that saw prices drop more than 27 cents, S&P Global Energy data showed. Exports exceeding expectations Exports, meanwhile, have continued to exceed expectations. What had previously been characterized as strong is now being described as unsustainable at current levels. The key driver remains the same — disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — but the impact is intensifying as the outage persists longer than initially anticipated. “Elevated export demand is expected to persist … as Europe, Latin America and Asia work to replace barrels lost due to the Strait of Hormuz closure,” analysts said,