Middle East Crisis: Why Are Freight Rates Rising in Waves and what’s next? Xeneta Chief Analyst Answers in International Shipping News 08/06/2026 Latest data shows containerized imports into the Middle East collapsed in the month immediately following the escalation of conflict at the end of February, down 64% in March year-on-year. Exports from the region were down 62% year-on-year. The data, released by Xeneta and Container Trades Statistics this week, is the clearest sign of the magnitude of the disruption and the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for container trade in the Middle East, essentially cutting off a seaborne trade artery into critical ports such as Jebel Ali and Khalifa in UAE, Dammam in Saudi Arabia and Hamad in Qatar. If this sudden collapse in trade in the Middle East acted as the initial earthquake, the aftershocks are still spreading across global supply chains. This wave pattern means it is not always easy for supply chain professionals to provide credible explanations internally to finance teams on why the freight budget has been blown apart – and, perhaps more importantly, what the forecast is for the remainder of 2026. This is especially the case if you are not shipping on trades directly impacted by the Strait of Hormuz. This blog will provide clarity and key considerations for the remainder of 2026. Note: ‘Middle East’ includes Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, Jordan, and Egypt (Ain Sokhna only). Waves of disruption We are now three months into the Middle East conflict and a familiar wave pattern is emerging. Port of Jeddah is a good example because it is acting as the gateway to a land bridge into areas of the Middle East cut off by the Strait of Hormuz. Between 28 February (date of escalation in conflict) and 22 March, average spot rates from China to Jeddah increased 85%. While this is not too surprising, what causes more confusion is spot rates then began to ease slightly, falling back 14% by 15 Apri