Why Iranian oil could be the biggest energy story of the decade: Let’s Talk Energy Q&A in Oil & Companies News 02/06/2026 In this week’s edition of Let’s Talk Energy, Aditya Saraswat, Research Director, Middle East and North Africa at Rystad Energy, joined Noah to unpack what the war in Iran means for global oil and gas. With roughly 14 million barrels per day of liquids and 85 million tonnes per annum of LNG capacity disrupted, and the Strait of Hormuz still the chokepoint that defines what happens next, the conversation covers how this conflict ends, what recovery looks like, the bypass projects that matter, and whether a post-sanctions Iran is investable. Read a Q&A excerpt from the episode below, and listen or watch the full conversation here – Why Iranian oil could be the biggest energy story of the decade Noah Brenner: What are you watching to understand how this conflict ends? Aditya Saraswat: “The nuclear enrichment capacity of Iran is the only variable that matters. That is the flag on the ground that we should look out for. Everything else, including ceasefires, diplomatic off-ramps, tactical exits, these are essentially the side actors to this agreement. So unless we reach a durable resolution on nuclear enrichment capacity, the conflict is not over. There will always be a risk of escalation in the coming weeks and months.” NB: How much production is shut in, and how does recovery look? AS: “Roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude and altogether 14 million barrels per day of liquids is shut in or disrupted. And about 85 million tonnes per annum of LNG capacity is offline. After the normalisation happens, it is logistics, not geology, which makes or breaks the recovery. Think of it as a triangulation problem for the GCC countries. You have to produce a molecule, ensure that the limited cushion you have in storage gets utilised, and utilise the limited fleet of vessels — and these three cannot be resolved simultaneously. The answer is oil by