Demand for Low-Carbon Shipping Has Fallen, but Long-Term Value Persists in International Shipping News,Shipping: Emission Possible 01/05/2026 Cargo owners’ willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for low-carbon fuels is crucial to maritime sector decarbonization. But this year, the results of BCG’s annual Shipping Decarbonization Survey reveal a marked drop in WTP, from 4.5% in 2024 to 3% in 2025, a level not seen since 2022. (See Exhibit 1.) This lower WTP, combined with cost pressures and continued regulatory uncertainty, means that carriers that wish to capture low-carbon value must seek pockets of demand while focusing ever more closely on economics and customer-centricity. (See the sidebar, “Survey Methodology.”) Survey Methodology Lower WTP is just the latest obstacle to progress on marine decarbonization. Industry leaders are already grappling with geopolitical uncertainty and the reemergence of tariffs, which is causing inflation, trade route shifts, and supply chain instability. Regulatory uncertainty hampers shippers’ ability to make long-term plans, particularly since the decision in late October 2025 to delay the potential adoption of the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework. Accordingly, our survey found that 60% of carriers see regulatory uncertainty as a barrier to optimizing fleet, investment, and commercial decisions. Despite contributing a large and rising share of global carbon emissions, maritime shipping is still the most energy-efficient way to move goods at scale. And in recent years, it has made significant efficiency gains. The industry has shown a readiness to innovate, whether through adoption of dual-fuel vessels or deployment of energy-efficiency technologies that combine proven upgrades such as rudder bulbs, propeller ducts, and stator fins with emerging solutions like wind-assisted propulsion, air lubrication, waste heat recovery, and AI-powered voyage optimization. However, falling WTP is preventing green fuel sales from reaching the volumes needed to meaningfully narrow the price gap with fossil fuels, creating uncertainty over who will foot the bill for shipping decarbonization. For carriers, it raises a question: Can they still make the business case for green solutions? Despite the challenges, we believe they can. This means gaining an understanding of what is driving the price sensitivity surrounding low-carbon fuel and using those insights to identify the opportunities. Carriers that do can still tap into low-carbon shipping’s long-term economic value. A Pivotal Moment for Maritime Decarbonization What is striking about this year’s survey results is the structural shift in demand for low-carbon shipping that has occurred since we conducted the research last year. The share of cargo owners unwilling to pay any decarbonization premium has increased by 4 percentage points. And, notably, the group willing to pay double-digit premiums has shrunk: Last year, 3% of respondents were willing to pay premiums above 20%; now, none are. This adjustment is visible across segments and customer types, including those that previously anchored demand. Among European cargo owners, for example, WTP has declined from 5% to 3.5%, despite strong regulation. Among cargo owners primarily using containers, WTP dropped from 4.5% to 3.5%. Although these groups continue to show higher WTP than the global average, the decline indicates that the steady upward trajectory seen in recent years has ended. The survey re