Oil Flows to Lag Even if Hormuz Strait Reopens Maritime Activity Reports, Inc. Ron Bousso April 20, 2026 © Yellow Boat / Adobe Stock The stop-start shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz underscores the profound uncertainty hanging over the world’s most critical oil and gas chokepoint. But one thing is already clear: even if the guns fall silent, flows through the narrow waterway will take months – and possibly years – to recover to pre-war levels. Iran said on Saturday that it was tightening control over the strait in response to a U.S. blockade on Iranian tankers, firing at several vessels and warning mariners that the strait was closed. This was only hours after Tehran announced a temporary reopening amid a 10‑day ceasefire. U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations were ongoing, while threatening to resume military action if shipping was disrupted again. Tehran effectively shut down the strait after the joint U.S.-Israeli aerial bombing campaign on Iran began on February 28. Since then, traffic through the strait – a passage that normally carries around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies – has slowed to a trickle. The immediate impact has been severe. Around 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply and roughly 300 million cubic meters per day of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been trapped inside the Gulf, forcing producers to shut in oil fields, refineries and LNG plants and battering economies from Asia to Europe. The fighting has also caused lasting damage to energy infrastructure – and diplomatic relationships – across the region. So how will a recovery play out, and when can the industry reasonably expect to approach pre-war operating levels? The Relief Rush The pace of recovery will depend not just on diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, but also on logistics, tanker insurance availability, freight rates and the willingness of shipowners to risk the passage. The first tankers to leave the Middle East will be the roughly 260 vessel