Five themes shaping the energy world in 2026 in Oil & Companies News 12/01/2026 1. Disruptive geopolitics, the global economy and commodity markets Strap in for another year of volatility with geopolitics influencing energy and natural resources markets as much as the fundamentals do. The war in Ukraine rumbles on, seemingly still some distance from a sustainable peace deal. The capture of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro embeds global fragmentation, with the US administration’s goals for Iran and Greenland adding to an ongoing disruptive narrative. Global trade is increasingly polarising into US- and China-led blocs and all that implies. This November’s US mid-term elections will be more significant than usual, with ramifications for all markets, including commodities. In our forecasts, global GDP growth slows to 2.5% in 2026 from 2.8% last year as trade tariffs bite, adding to the inauspicious backdrop. However, the Fed’s ongoing rate cuts suggest 2026 may prove to be the low point of the cycle. Any weakening of the dollar that results may provide some support for commodity prices. Oil: The OPEC+ strategy to dampen non-OPEC liquids supply by driving prices down is working. We forecast Brent will average US$59/bbl in 2026, US$10/bbl below last year. The market is awash with supply, with global liquids growth of 2.5 million b/d swamping demand growth of 0.7 million – even before any additional volumes from Venezuela. Intensifying geopolitical tension may limit the downside. Gas and LNG: Global LNG prices enter the anticipated, potentially long-duration, slump. The massive new wave of LNG supply, mainly from the US and Qatar, ramps up through 2026 and continues for several years. Delivered prices into Europe and Japan – already two-thirds down from the post-Ukraine war peak of 2022, at an average of US$12/mmbtu in 2025 – could halve again by the early 2030s. The writing is already on the wall. European prices (TTF) slipped below US$10/mmbtu in early January despite the cold temperatures while Chinese demand remains weak. Meanwhile, the rising call on US gas for export and domestic use will heap pressure on Henry Hub prices. The US benchmark temporarily climbed above US$5/mmbtu last December. While this was weather-driven, demand growth sets the stage for a future that may arrive sooner than expected. The prospect of lower margins for US LNG producers is no longer as distant as it once felt. Metals: Copper again looks the standout this year, with demand growth driven by electrification and supply disruptions continuing to buoy prices. Governments will step up efforts to secure access to critical minerals and consider building out domestic supply chains. 2. Energy affordability: power prices are now a political concern Over the past four years, European electricity consumers have faced some of the highest power prices in the world, mainly a result of soaring gas prices, which set the wholesale power price in most markets. We expect European economies to get a boost from 2026 as gas prices fall. Addressing rising US retail power prices is firmly on the agenda for the US Administration a theme we highlighted in the Edge exactly a year ago. In 2025, 39 of the 50 states experienced real increases in residential electricity rates. Power demand is soaring on rampant AI investment and data centre build-out. Utilities have to invest to make the grid more resilient against wildfires and extreme weather events. And with a host of other factors