(www.MaritimeCyprus.com) The IFCHOR Galbraiths Bulk Carriers Outlook: 2026 report provides a constructive analysis of the dry bulk market, highlighting that freight rates entered the second quarter of 2026 in a stronger-than-anticipated position . This outperformance is largely driven by resilient iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil, alongside an accelerating transition in Guinea where iron ore is beginning to displace bauxite exports . While geopolitical volatility and supply-side growth in mid-size segments present ongoing challenges, the report suggests that tightening large-vessel balances and shifting global trade patterns continue to underpin market momentum into 1H'26 . Bulk carrier markets entered 2Q’26 in a much stronger position than anticipated, with freight rates outperforming despite a highly volatile macro backdrop. At first glance, the story is iron ore: strong export pace in 1Q’26, led by Australia, while the Q1/Q2 seasonal transition once again amplified Capesize momentum. By late April, Capes spot rates had doubled YoY, were testing the 35–40k$/day range and approaching the high levels seen in Dec’25. But that’s only half the story: geopolitics has played a more complex role than initially expected. Volatility didn’t destroy demand, it compressed time The war in the Middle East injected exceptional volatility into energy and freight markets, primarily through bunker price swings and disruptions to trading conditions. Although the overall intensity of the conflict eased through April, the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — and the uncertainty surrounding its resolution — have maintained a high level of unpredictability. For bulk carriers, this volatility is not neutral: ships don’t sit on shelves, time lost is supply gone. Periods of disruption, hesitation and rapid repositioning reduce effective supply and compress decision cycles. In that sense, the war has acted less as a drag on demand than as a volatility-driven accelerator, am