EMEA FX Talking: CEE to continue outperforming forwards in Daily Currencies Ratings 15/01/2026 EUR/PLN: Stabilisation at the beginning of 2026, outlook positive • The EUR/PLN slipped to 4.20 (nine-month low) in December, due to the economic outperformance of Poland vs the EU, aided by positive EM sentiment and the rise of EUR/USD. We are neutral short term with the risk skewed towards a stronger PLN as positive EM sentiment and Poland’s strong GDP are set to continue due to the public investment boom. The rise of EUR/USD should offset the below consensus NBP cuts (3.25%). • Current risks to the zloty remain linked to geopolitical factors, primarily the potential escalation of Russia’s conflict with Europe and possible military provocations. In the medium term, changes to Poland’s growth model and the effectiveness of German fiscal stimulus will be crucial for CEE economies and sentiment towards CEE FX. EUR/HUF: The HUF rally fizzled out, giving way to stability • The National Bank of Hungary’s unexpected dovish shift in December eventually brought an end to the year-long rally in the forint. The new gravity line appears to be around 385, and it seems that the central bank has found its own ‘happy place’ there. • As the market has already priced in two rate cuts for the first quarter of 2026, we believe the eventual start of the easing cycle will have a moderately negative impact on the forint. • We expect volatility to rise as we approach the general election in spring 2026. However, we believe that the central bank will be as opportunistic as possible. A downside surprise in inflation, improving risk sentiment, or a dovish shift among major central banks could prompt the NBH to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially pushing the EUR/HUF exchange rate towards 390 in the coming months. EUR/CZK: Fundamentals will kick in after a short intermezzo • The Czech economy is in a good place, with fixed investment expected to do as good a job as household consumption. Its projected growth outperformance relative to the eurozone strengthens the fundamental driver of the Czech koruna’s resilience throughout 2026. At the same time, we see headline inflation dropping to 1.1% on average this year, pushed down by energy prices. • When market participants see January’s low inflation print and realise that monetary policy easing is likely to arrive sooner or later, the koruna’s smooth ride will be interrupted in the first quarter. Yet we are looking at an economy with solid expansion and subdued inflation – who wouldn’t want that? A robust real interest rate and a positive rate differential versus the ECB form the second pillar of the koruna’s strength. Once the dust settles around the low January inflation reading, the koruna should be ready to embark on another appreciation journey. EUR/RON: Stability to prevail around 5.09 • EUR/RON dynamics: Year-end saw buying pressure in EUR/RON, likely influenced by bond market factors. However, strong offers emerged in the 5.0930–5.0950 range, and the pair ended the year close to our 5.09 forecast. • Fiscal and liquidity context: The budget deficit stood at -6.4% of GDP in November and likely just below -8.4% in December. This drove a substantial liquidity injection from the Ministry of Finance in December – around RON 30bn or more – pushing carry rates well below the 5.50% deposit facility level. • Outlook: We expect the pair to remain within its current range and close the year near 5.15, as inflation trends do