Russia’s seaborne crude exports are facing their sharpest disruption of the war era as new US sanctions begin to reshape global oil flows. Bloomberg data show four-week average shipments slipped to 3.58m barrels per day by November 2, down almost 200,000 barrels per day from late October — the steepest fall since January. Moscow’s oil revenues have dropped to their lowest level since August, with refiners in China, India and Turkey pausing purchases of sanctioned barrels from Rosneft and Lukoil ahead of a November 21 compliance deadline. Analysis from Braemar and Vortexa suggests the impact is already visible at sea. Russian crude in transit has climbed to a 2.5-year high of 115m barrels, with as much as 68m barrels still en route to India despite signs that most Indian refiners are winding down future liftings. The mismatch between Russian exports and Indian imports — about 450,000 bpd — points to growing volumes that may struggle to find buyers. While some Indian state-owned refiners continue to take limited non-sanctioned cargoes, private refiners have sharply reduced purchases, Braemar said, noting a 60% drop in shipments bound for Indian private refiners since the sanctions were announced. Much of the unplaced crude is expected to head to China’s Shandong teapot refiners, though their capacity to absorb the extra volumes is uncertain. Chinese state-owned refiners have also retreated. ESPO blend from Kozmino, once commanding a premium to Brent, is now trading at a $0.50 per barrel discount, with some buyers cancelling cargoes. Tanker behaviour has shifted in response. Braemar noted that ballast speeds for unsanctioned vessels returning to Russia have risen 11%, as owners rush to complete final loadings before the wind-down period expires. This tightening of available tonnage, coupled with mounting discharge delays, could soon constrain Russia’s ability to sustain export volumes. Sentosa Shipbrokers said more Russian crude is being pushed into floating storage, as refiners hit by drone strikes and sanctions struggle to place barrels. Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure — including Lukoil’s 340,000 barrels per day Nizhny Novgorod refinery and facilities at Tuapse and Saratov — have further complicated the supply picture, forcing Russia to impose a temporary export ban on sulphur until at least year-end. Swedish bank SEB expects that India and China will shift sourcing toward Atlantic Basin and Middle East grades, opening longer-haul routes and supporting compliant tanker demand. VLCC rates from the Middle East (TD3C) have already climbed over 50% since the US measures were announced. As Russian crude piles up at sea and traditional buyers step back, analysts warn that Moscow may soon face a triple squeeze: fewer ships available to load, fewer markets willing to receive, and more production capacity forced offline by Ukraine’s drone campaign. With around 20% of Russia’s national refinery capacity knocked out by drones in recent months, authorities have started urgently building metal cages around oil facilities to protect them from future attacks. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1_95_0_1_2'); }); TagsIndia Russia Turkey