Dutch TTF gas prices to rise 40-50% “to keep the EU lights on:” Bernstein in General Energy News 08/03/2026 European benchmark gas prices may need to rise sharply to ensure adequate supply if disruptions to Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports persist, according to analysts at Bernstein. The brokerage said the could need to increase by roughly 40% to 50% from current levels in order to attract LNG cargoes away from Asia and secure sufficient supply for Europe during a prolonged disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and halted Qatari production. Energy markets have already reacted to escalating tensions in the region. Gas prices surged after QatarEnergy halted production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities following a drone attack, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a route through which roughly 20% of global LNG passes — tightened global supply. TTF prices have climbed to around $16 per mmBtu, while Asian benchmark rose above $20 per mmBtu. Despite the price spike, analysts at Bernstein argue Europe remains at a disadvantage in the global LNG market. The current price gap between Asian and European benchmarks means cargoes from the U.S. Gulf still earn significantly more when shipped to Asia rather than Europe. “At current differentials Europe is clearly losing that bidding war,” the analysts led by Irene Himona wrote. They estimate that “TTF will likely need to jump another 40% to 50% from where it is currently, just to keep the lights on” if the Qatari outage lasts more than a few weeks. The competition for LNG cargoes has intensified as Asian buyers seek to replace Qatari supply. Asia relied on Qatar for nearly 30% of its gas imports, prompting what Bernstein describes as “panic buying,” pushing the JKM benchmark as high as $27 per mmBtu earlier in the week. Europe’s direct exposure to Qatari LNG is relatively limited, accounting for roughly 8% of the region’s imports in 2025, down sharply from previous years as U.S. LNG has filled the gap. However, the globalized nature of LNG trade means disruptions still ripple through the market. Bernstein notes that around 20% of global LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 85% of those volumes normally heading to Asian buyers. When supply is disrupted, Asian importers are forced to compete for cargoes from the Atlantic basin, including the same U.S. LNG shipments Europe depends on. Additional supply from the U.S. may be limited in the near term. Export terminals are currently operating at about 94% utilization, leaving little spare capacity to increase shipments in response to higher prices, the analysts said. As a result, they believe the only way for Europe to secure additional cargoes is through price competition. “If you want an extra ship of U.S. gas in Berlin, you have to bid high enough to divert it away from Tokyo,” the analysts wrote. “There is no “extra” gas being produced or LNG manufactured right now.” The situation is further complicated by Europe’s low storage levels. The region exited February with gas storage about 35% full, below the five-year average, increasing the urgency of securing additional supply ahead of next winter’s refill season. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-08 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id;