Thai rice exports seen recovering in H2 2026 if Middle East tensions ease in Freight News 18/05/2026 Thailand’s rice exports are likely to recover in the second half of 2026 if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, while Thai 5% broken white rice prices are expected to trade within a relatively narrow range as adequate domestic stocks cap gains, Mohit Agarwal, country head of agri-business firm Olam Agri for Vietnam and Thailand, said in an interview with Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. “I would put a $10 to $15 upside or a $20 downside, but not beyond that,” Agarwal said, referring to Thailand’s 5% broken white rice prices. “I am not looking at a $50 kind of change, at least at this point.” Platts assessed Thai 5% broken white rice at $416/mt FOB May 14, up $24/mt month over month. Rising fertilizer, freight, and packaging costs have also contributed to higher export offers, Agarwal said. Thailand saw production costs increase by around 4%-5% during the March-April harvest, with government fuel subsidies helping offset part of the increase, while Vietnam experienced a sharper rise in costs as its winter-spring crop coincided with elevated fertilizer prices. Thailand’s rice exports fell 25% year over year over January-April, according to USDA data, but Agarwal said the decline was largely due to lower purchases from Iraq, Thailand’s largest buyer over the past three years, as well as reduced buying from China and the US. “The drop is predominantly coming from Iraq,” he said. “Historically, Iraq buys close to 900,000 mt to 1 million mt a year, and that demand has not really come in.” Agarwal said the decline should be viewed as a timing issue rather than a structural loss of competitiveness, noting that Thailand continues to maintain a differentiated position in markets that value its quality profile. Agarwal said Thai exports could recover later in the year if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, helping reduce freight and packaging costs a