China’s crude import stress resistance in a Hormuz crisis in Freight News 11/03/2026 As the Gulf conflict escalates and the near-full closure of the Strait of Hormuz enters its second week, the likelihood of broader production disruptions in the Gulf and refinery run cuts across Asia is increasing. In China, the world’s largest crude importer and potentially one of the most exposed economies in the event of a prolonged Middle East supply disruption, some refiners have already brought forward previously scheduled maintenance in anticipation of possible feedstock shortages. While the country benefits from a diverse supplier base and sizable crude inventories, uneven stock distribution and varying dependence on Middle Eastern supplies leave some refineries facing more immediate run-cut risks. This report assesses these vulnerabilities at the refinery level. Oil supply overview: national reserves likely only an emergency buffer In 2025, crude supplied via the Strait of Hormuz accounted for roughly 35% of China’s total crude supplies, including both seaborne and non-seaborne sources. China’s seaborne crude imports averaged about 11.5mbd in the first two months of the year, around 900kbd higher than the 2025 average. The increase was mainly driven by pre-holiday refinery run hikes, alongside roughly 200kbd of inventory builds. At the same time, the share of seaborne imports transiting Hormuz declined from 51% in 2025 to about 44%. This reflects a sharp increase in Russian seaborne crude imports, which do not pass through the Strait, rising from around 1.2mbd in 2025 to roughly 1.8mbd. Private Chinese refiners stepped up purchases as weaker demand from other Asian buyers created opportunities, reducing reliance on Hormuz-linked Iranian supplies. Beyond seaborne flows, China’s domestic crude production and Russia–China pipeline imports together averaged around 5.1mbd in 2025 and are expected to remain broadly stable this year. As a result, crude flows linked to the Strait of Hormuz still account for roughly one third of China’s total crude supply. Chinese refineries typically maintain around three weeks of feedstock inventories on site, while additional commercial storage near major refining hubs provides a critical buffer against temporary supply disruptions. State-run refiners—required by China’s authorities to prioritise domestic fuel supply—would likely respond to a prolonged disruption by cutting product exports and reducing refinery run rates, rather than immediately drawing on Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks, which require state approval for access. The response would likely begin with suspending new export contracts, potentially followed by delaying previously contracted cargoes. China currently holds an estimated 1.3 billion barrels of crude in onshore storage, equivalent to around four months of seaborne imports at the 2025 average rate. Roughly 900mb are held in state-controlled facilities, including over 110mb in underground strategic storage, while about 400mb are stored in private commercial tanks. Refinery-level vulnerability remains uneven Despite the large aggregate inventory cushion, exposure varies significantly at the refinery level. Refineries that rely almost entirely on seaborne imports and operate with limited storage capacity could face near-term run cuts if disruptions persist. The two largest Chinese oil majors—PetroChina and Sinopec—also display markedly different levels of resilience. PetroChina controls ne