GMS Week 16 – CEASEFIRE EXTENDED, NOT RESOLVED in Weekly Demolition Reports 17/04/2026 The Week 15 thesis that the war premium was cracking has not held. What looked like a diplomatic off-ramp has narrowed into a less convincing outcome. Washington and Tehran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension, but talks are now focused on a temporary memorandum to avoid renewed conflict, not the broader agreement and Hormuz reopening markets had priced in. Risk remains elevated. The U.S. has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Tehran continues to restrict the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian traffic. The Department of Defense is deploying 6,000 additional troops, with a further 4,200 expected by month-end. A ten-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire offers only limited relief. Markets are not stabilising. They are adjusting to a higher plateau of risk. Brent traded between USD 94.89 and USD 97.06 per barrel, settling near USD 95, down from Week 15’s USD 101 close. The driver has shifted from de-escalation hopes to demand concerns after the IEA cut its 2026 consumption forecast. At the same time, U.S. crude inventories posted a 9.13 million barrel draw against expectations of a 154,000-barrel build, the first draw after seven consecutive weekly increases. The physical market is tight, but sentiment remains uncertain, offering no support for a reopening of supply corridors or a shift in recycling dynamics. Freight is clearer. The Baltic Dry Index extended its rally to nine consecutive sessions, closing at 2,523 on April 16, up 39 points and at its highest level since early December. Capesize rates moved above 3,100 points to a four-month high on Brazil to China iron ore flows, with Panamax and Supramax also gaining. Improving earnings are keeping older bulkers trading, and the expected Q1 tonnage overhang remains withheld. Currencies and steel are not the drivers. The USD/INR is around 93.46, Pakistan and Bangladesh remain steady, the Turkish Lira has held its recovery, and the Dollar Index remains near 99. Bangladesh steel holds Week 15 gains, while Pakistan edges higher. With roughly six weeks before the monsoon window closes, sub-continent fundamentals are supportive. Bangladesh leads on pricing and improving LC flows, Pakistan offers stability, and India retains its HKC advantage. Yet across all three, yards are waiting for ships that owners are choosing not to sell. The Week 15 expectation of a tonnage release has shifted. Week 16 shows that even a ceasefire extension can keep vessels trading. As Week 17 approaches, the question is whether supply returns before the monsoon or rolls into a backlog, dependent on the Hormuz outcome. For Week 16 of 2026, GMS Market Rankings / vessel indications are as below. Download PDF Source: GMS,Inc. https://www.gmsinc.net/gms_new/index.php/web 2026-04-17 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share