As the year begins to draw to a close, the more convivial atmosphere of the Christmas cocktail party circuit replaces the seemingly endless round of shipping conferences we have been subjected to. Having feasted on a diet of speeches on sustainability and decarbonisation, attention in recent weeks has switched to the newbuilding orderbook with a recent Splash article headlined ‘Astonishing 43m cgt of new ships set to flood the market this year’. Will shipping executives be choking on their canapes after a year when a supposedly manageable orderbook was going to offset any worries on the demand side? With the notable exception of the capesize sector, the dry bulk orderbook has been creeping up and now stands at 14% for panamaxes, 11% for supramaxes and 12% for handysizes. Probably not time for full blown panic mode, but trainee shipbrokers are often taught that a sub-10% orderbook in any single sector is a key ingredient in the recipe for prosperity. Barely a week goes by without another new bulker order being announced and prices have reportedly crept up by 50% since January 2021. With demolition (or recycling as it is now politely called) having hit the lowest level in 20 years, that means a lot of new tonnage will have to be absorbed at a time when there are questions on the demand side. The lessons of the past together with the uncertainties of the present should temper enthusiasm to over order again Some relief can be garnered from the fact that the ‘astonishing’ figure of 43m is in compensated gross tons (cgt), that magical formula dreamed up by the OECD in 1977 when European shipbuilding was going through its death throes and China’s role as the world’s dominant shipbuilder was no more than a pipe dream. The cgt formula, taking into account the amount of work that is required to build a ship, puts a premium on more sophisticated ships, hence why cruiseship specialists such as France and Italy have retained a much higher ranking in shipbuilding league tables then the actual number of ships they produce would normally warrant. With LNG carriers and containerships now much more prominent in the orderbook and commanding a higher cgt coefficient, it is no surprise that the orderbook looks daunting. It is also no surprise that shipyards have heavily invested in producing higher value ships which command better margins than standard types. As China has rapidly expanded its high margin shipbuilding capacity, which now includes its first foray into cruiseships, shipyards are less willing to allocate precious space to lower margin ships such as bulk carriers. Hence if you do want a new bulk carrier, you will have to pay up for it. Combined with the lengthy wait anyone brave enough to place a speculative bulk carrier order has to face, particularly with the ongoing uncertainties over choice of fuel to be selected, a little reticence when it comes to placing orders next year would be logical. Of course it is equally likely that the prospect of continued higher prices as the shipbuilders get increasingly addicted to profitability prompts a rush from owners and a further inflated orderbook. Hopefully the lessons of the past together with the uncertainties of the present will temper enthusiasm to over order again. The 43m cgt of deliveries this year is compared to the only other time the figure went above 40m, which were the years between 2008 and 2012. That was when the pre-financial crisis ordering binge hit the water, pitching the industry in