Natural gas and LNG: Top 5 market drivers for 2026 in General Energy News 20/01/2026 This article was first posted on Kpler Insight on 7 January. The global gas market is undergoing a significant period of transition, shifting from the tight market conditions that have prevailed since 2022 toward a phase of oversupply. From a fundamental perspective, the LNG market balance is projected to loosen in 2026, largely driven by a substantial increase in LNG supply. As the market finds a new balance, global gas prices are expected to drop to compress margins for US LNG offtakers; however, not to the extent that US cargo cancellations become necessary. Alongside these supply dynamics, we anticipate a gradual return to more traditional trade routes. LNG vessels could potentially resume transit through the Suez Canal, contingent on sustained peace between Israel and Hamas. Such developments would ease shipping bottlenecks and improve delivery flexibility. Nevertheless, uncertainty will remain a defining feature of the market. The outcome of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations continues to represent a key source of risk, as a resolution—or lack thereof—could influence the potential return of Russian gas and LNG to the global market. 2026 is set to be a transitional year, characterized by ample LNG supply, shifting trade flows, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, requiring market participants to carefully navigate both risks and opportunities. In this piece, we outline the top 5 things to watch out for in this market in 2026. 1. The 2026 LNG supply wave: how big and how fast? Approximately 37 mtpa of new liquefaction capacity is slated to come online in 2026, adding to the 51 mtpa of capacity that entered service in 2025 (including Plaquemines phase 1). The new projects, as outlined in the table below, are expected to come online steadily through the year, resulting in a sustained increase in LNG supply, particularly from the Atlantic basin. Kpler Insight currently forecasts global LNG supply to rise by over 46 mt in 2025 to 475.3 mt. However, given regular delays associated with LNG developments, close monitoring of commissioning timelines and ramp-up profiles will be critical in determining the magnitude of supply growth in 2026. The two biggest projects starting up next year are the 15.6 mtpa Golden Pass LNG facility in the US and the first 8 mtpa train of Qatar’s North Field East (NFE) expansion, but the timelines of these two projects are also the most in flux. Golden Pass has suffered delays due to its original EPC contractor, Zachry, declaring bankruptcy while NFE’s construction timeline is uncertain, with rumours of possible delays beyond our currently forecast start-up date of October 2026. Pluto LNG Phase 2 in Australia could also suffer delays due to the possibility of strike actions by workers at the project. 2. Ukraine peace scenario: implications for European gas balances and global LNG flows Despite recent progress toward a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, we believe significant uncertainty remains before any agreement is finalised. Key unresolved issues include borders, security guarantees, and the future involvement and commitment of both the EU and the US. Against this backdrop, Kpler Insight’s base case assumes the following: Kpler Insight does not expect a return of Russian pipeline gas flows via Ukraine or through any previously lost routes. Instead, our view is that the EU will pass legislation in early 2026