US–India trade pact: A game changer for crude flows and VLCCs in International Shipping News 11/02/2026 The US–India trade agreement is expected to reduce India’s reliance on Russian crude oil, benefiting the mainstream fleet and tonne-mile demand. Although a complete halt is unlikely at the moment due to existing contracts, refinery constraints and geopolitical considerations, any partial replacement of Russian oil with US/Venezuelan oil will strengthen the employment of VLCCs. The tanker market heated up on the expectation of a shift in trade patterns after the US President’s announcement to lower US tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, which is likely to boost US imports. India became the biggest importer of Russian oil, accounting for nearly half of Russia’s seaborne trade in 2024. If India replaces Russian barrels with US or Venezuelan oil, tonne-mile demand will expand due to longer shipping distances. VLCC forward curve spikes on trade shift hopes China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, with most volumes transported on VLCCs. Last year, only six VLCCs joined the fleet, while 33 VLCCs are scheduled to be delivered in 2026. The fleet remained constrained due to lower additions and increased sanctions, which tightened the effective supply. Since most Venezuelan oil is carried by the shadow fleet to China, any diversion in this volume to India would require more non-sanctioned tankers. After the US-India trade deal, the forward freight agreement (FFA) for the benchmark VLCC route, TD3C (Middle East–China), surged for February and remained strong for March-April. With the expectation of rising long-haul trade from Venezuela to India, the utilisation of VLCCs will increase, pushing FFAs higher. If China displaces this lost Venezuelan volume from Russia or the Middle East, the net effect will remain positive for tanker tonne-miles. When converted to time charter equivalent rates, the earnings for 1Q26 are projected to stay above the $100,000pd mark, while in 2Q26, they are likely to be around $93,100pd. Will India stop buying Russian oil? Only Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy possess the technical capacity to process large volumes of heavy crude; Venezuelan crude might supplement India’s energy supply, but the country cannot fully replace Russian imports, especially for public-sector refiners. Therefore, a complete halt is unlikely, but the share of Russian oil is likely to decrease. India has already slashed its Russian oil imports, diversified its supply sources, and signalled willingness to expand energy trade with the US. The government also stated that it will diversify its energy sources, in line with market trends and shifting international dynamics. China’s increases Russian imports Meanwhile, China is expected to strengthen its purchases of Russian oil, reducing imports from Venezuela. In the first week of February, discounts on Russian oil exports to China reached a record high as sellers lowered prices to attract demand from China and to offset the likely reduction in Indian import volumes. Thus, we do not expect a significant decline in Russian oil production this year as China has emerged as the top buyer, absorbing displaced barrels and replenishing its reserves. This would mean the dark trade remains intact, with more sanctioned Suezmaxes employed on the Russia-to-China route. Conclusion: Sanctions and tariffs reshape tanker fortunes Rising sanctions, growing tariffs and changing trade patterns are reshap