Low gas storage, LNG disruption to test European resilience in Q2 in Oil & Companies News 08/04/2026 As the Middle East war bleeds into a second month, unprecedented disruptions to global LNG supply, low gas storage levels, and geopolitical uncertainty have primed the European gas market for a potentially tumultuous second quarter. The conflict continues to choke transit through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 20% of the world’s LNG supply from international buyers. Even if fighting were to subside, the war has already dealt a significant blow to gas markets, with Iranian attacks curtailing some 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for three to five years. QatarEnergy’s other LNG production also remains offline after it halted output in early March. The EU itself has limited direct exposure to Qatari LNG. In 2025, Qatar accounted for about 8.2% of its total LNG imports, according to data from S&P Global Energy CERA. And EU leaders have repeatedly maintained in recent weeks that the continent’s gas supply is secure. However, Europe’s deepening reliance on LNG for baseload gas needs since the 2022 outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war means it remains exposed to price risks in the intensely global market amid heightened competition with LNG buyers in Asia, the main offtake market for Persian Gulf exports. With cold weather waning, Europe’s focus is shifting to rebuilding gas storage ahead of next winter. That will be an uphill effort. Stocks entering spring are at their lowest level since March 2022. EU-wide gas storage was 28.1% full as of March 28, according to data published by Gas Infrastructure Europe. At the same time in 2025 and 2024, it was 33.5% and 58.7% full, respectively. The duration of the full-scale Qatari outage remains a key uncertainty. CERA analysts expect European gas storage could reach roughly 78% full by the end of October if Qatari production is offline for three months and takes eight weeks to ramp up. While lower than recent years, it would still surpass a theoretical minimum fill level allowed under flexibilities in the EU’s latest storage regulation. But if the outage stretches to five months, the CERA analysts project EU storage would only hit 67% full by next winter, leaving the continent a diminished buffer against price spikes heading into next winter. “Any extension of disrupted Qatari/UAE gas flows beyond the [three-month] base case would significantly tighten Europe’s end-summer storage outlook,” said Dominic Simmons, senior principal gas analyst for CERA. Demand-side responses to the recent market turmoil could offer a tailwind to the storage fill, with elevated gas prices expected to temper European consumption, according to CERA analysts. They project industrial gas demand across the EU and UK — previously forecast to rise — will now fall by 0.8% year over year in 2026. Power variations The outlook for power prices in the second quarter varies significantly across Europe, with more gas price-linked markets like Italy and the UK most affected, while French and Iberian power prices remain decoupled from other markets due to oversupply from solar and nuclear. Solar is forecast to exceed nuclear at the top of the Q2 power mix across the 10 core nations in the CERA forecast, with solar capacity now above 400 GW across the EU27. Germany alone has almost 120 GW of solar capacity installed, but output could be lower year over year, with curtailments and zero prices still an issue despite higher prices ou