DNV: Optimism continues as bulk carrier market enters a new phase in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 19/01/2026 Dry bulk shipping is entering a new era of both opportunity and challenge. Robust commodity demand and evolving trade patterns, driven by China’s quest for supply security, are transforming global flows. At the same time, regulatory pressure and sliding sustainability goals are redefining strategies for shipowners and operators worldwide. After years of volatility, shaped by pandemic-driven disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty, the sector is entering a phase of cautious optimism. Demand for iron ore, bauxite, and agricultural commodities continues to underpin tonne-mile growth, while infrastructure projects, like Simandou in West Africa, signal long-term opportunities. Global economic momentum and dry bulk trade Despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures, global economic growth has supported steady demand for raw materials. Dry bulk trade surged in 2024, driven by iron ore and grain shipments, before moderating in 2025 due to declining coal demand and weaker steel production. Still, tonne-mile expansion persists, driven by new and longer trade routes, most of them originating from West Africa. “Global dry bulk commodity demand growth may be modest, but it’s consistent enough to underpin relatively strong demand for larger tonnage,” says Morten Løvstad, Vice President and Global Business Director for Bulk Carriers at DNV. “This reflects a shift toward supply security and infrastructure-led projects rather than broad-based industrial expansion. Energy transition and fleet renewal will play only a minor role in newbuild demand over the next two to three years.” Bulker market on cusp of major change For well-established bulk carrier market trade routes, such as Australia to China, and South America to China, markets are in a state of relative balance. Soybeans remain the fastest growing commodity at around 6% annually, shipped mainly from the US, Brazil, and Argentina to China using Ultramax and Kamsarmax vessels. Kamsarmax vessels also increasingly serve as back-haul carriers for deck cargo, such as large wind-turbine blades. Freight rates for these segments hover near the 10-year average, with no major spikes expected in the short to medium term. “Agricultural commodities such as soybeans and grains continue to inject seasonal volatility, while minor bulks like bauxite are gaining traction thanks to aluminum demand and renewable energy supply chains,” adds Løvstad. “This is offsetting declines in coal exports, creating a relatively balanced total market. However, new forces are reshaping the game.” Bauxite trade a game-changer for capesize tonnage Bauxite exports from Guinea have surged dramatically over the past decade, transforming global trade flows. From just 20–30 million tonnes exported in 2015, Guinea shipped nearly 175 million tonnes in 2025, overtaking Australia as the world’s leading supplier. Most of this volume heads to China – where demand for bauxite is being driven by the electric vehicle and renewable energy infrastructure markets – generating three times more tonne-miles than Australian shipments. Crucially, since 2015 – and even more so since 2020 – a structural shift has taken place with this commodity, with bauxite transport shifting away from smaller Supramax and Kamsramax vessels towards larger vessels such as Capesize, Newcastlemax, and VLOCs. “Guinea’s rise as a bauxite po