GMS Week 24 – PREMIUM CRACKS, PEN HOVERS in Weekly Demolition Reports 13/06/2026 The war premium has finally cracked. Brent crude fell more than 4% on Thursday toward USD 89 per barrel, its lowest level since March, with WTI near USD 86, after President Trump suspended military strikes against Iran that had been scheduled for that evening and told reporters that a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be signed as early as this weekend, likely in Europe. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that Tehran is likely to approve the agreement, though no final text has been confirmed by either side. The Weekly first reported the war premium cracking in Week 15. Nine weeks later, the premium has finally read the report. The pen is hovering, not yet landed. The week that produced the breakthrough also produced US strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites on June 10 and Iranian missile responses across the Gulf, with mediation now running through Qatar and draft texts still being exchanged. The framework requires Iran to clear all mines from Hormuz within 30 days of signature and bars tolls on the strait, while even a signed deal faces idled production fields, damaged export facilities, and the slow mechanics of restoring confidence to a waterway that has spent a quarter as a war zone. The agreement could be signed this weekend, in Europe, which is at least a new continent for the deadline to miss. Freight has cooled for the first time in the arc. The Baltic Dry Index eased to 2,818 on June 9 from the June 1 peak of 3,222, with the Baltic Capesize Index at 4,441 and daily Capesize earnings at USD 40,274, down from the USD 49,511 high of the prior week, though Supramax and Handysize both firmed. For the first time since February, the two forces that have kept older tonnage trading rather than beaching, the bunker-cost floor and the freight earnings premium, are softening in the same week. They have chosen the week the beach is closed for the season. The market’s t