The third edition of Geneva Dry opened in characteristically candid style, with the commodities shipping outlook panel setting the scene for two days of debate by tackling the markets, the two-tier fleet, the bunker crisis, and the faltering green transition – and pulling no punches on any of them. Moderator Sam Chambers opened with a show of hands that revealed a divided room. While the panel was unanimous that this is the most complex period any of them had experienced in shipping, only around half the audience agreed. Fewer still raised their hands when asked whether dry bulk markets would be better at next year’s Geneva Dry. Alexis Ellender, lead dry bulk analyst at Kpler, opened with the numbers, and they were largely encouraging. Seaborne dry bulk trade grew just over 2% in the first four months of 2026 to approximately 1.7bn tonnes. TC rate averages for panamaxes, supramaxes and handysizes are up 56%, 41% and 34% year-on-year respectively. “Dry bulk trade is growing. It’s a good time for us to be discussing it,” Ellender said. But the picture is complicated. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is cascading through commodity supply chains in ways that are only beginning to be felt. Fertiliser exports from the Middle East Gulf – some 36m tonnes annually – have been disrupted, affecting planting decisions as far away as the US corn belt. Sulphur, critical not just as a fertiliser but for processing nickel and copper ore, is now being sourced from west coast Canada instead of the Gulf, creating new Pacific supramax demand while raising questions about Indonesian nickel ore throughput. Coal is another moving part. Indonesia had been cutting production to support prices, but that calculus has shifted with gas-to-coal switching accelerating across East and Southeast Asia as LNG supplies tighten. “Are we looking at Colombia? Are we looking at Russia to supply the coal now needed?” Ellender asked. On China, Peter Lye, executive head of marketing for shipping and safety at miner Anglo American, was sanguine. “We consistently write it off year on year, and I think what we’ve seen this year is not that at all. Demand for the products that we produce has been consistent and strong.” Cape rates pushing $40,000 per day at the time of the panel underlined his point. Ellender was more measured on the medium term. China’s economy needs to transition from investment-led to consumption-led growth, a painful process that keeps being deferred. “It’s almost an article of faith – how long can this game keep going?” On India, Lye said: “It’s just different. It seems to be quite targeted and quite nuanced to particular trades,” he said, cautioning against the recurring temptation to call India the next China. John Xylas, CEO of Ariston Navigation and chairman of INTERCARGO, delivered one of the panel’s most substantive contributions on the bifurcation of the global dry bulk fleet. A thickening compliance stack – EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, CII, EEXI, tightening port state control and charterer vetting – is creating a growing divide between well-managed and less well-managed tonnage. Crucially, Xylas argued, the dividing line is not vessel age or size but quality of management. “The agility of small to medium enterprises is not a weakness, it is definitely an asset that we should preserve,” he said. Lye echoed the point from the charterer’s seat. “We don’t apologise for expecting high standards. We expect it of ourselves and we certainly expect it of our part