Morgan Stanley sees coal demand rising on Middle East tensions in Commodity News 19/03/2026 Morgan Stanley says seaborne thermal coal prices are rising as Middle East tensions push Asian utilities to shift from natural gas to coal-fired power generation. The conflict in Iran and around the Gulf has driven energy prices higher, with the Strait of Hormuz responsible for 20-30% of global seaborne crude oil shipments. South Asian countries face particular exposure as Qatari LNG accounts for 60% of the region’s supply mix, while Northeast Asia relies on Qatar for about 15% of its LNG supply. Asian utilities are ramping up coal generation to avoid high spot LNG prices. Morgan Stanley estimates Japan, Korea and Taiwan could require an extra 1.5-2 million tons of thermal coal import demand per month if disruption to Qatari LNG exports continues, representing an 8-10% jump in coal import demand. South Asian utilities could add roughly 1-1.5 million tons per month of extra seaborne import demand if the outage lasts multiple months. China’s domestic coal prices should trend higher year-over-year despite limited effects on coal demand from the country’s chemical sectors. Morgan Stanley expects incremental coal volumes to represent about 1.3% of total effective thermal supply in China under extreme cases, with higher import prices providing a buffer to the price floor. Australia currently holds 36 days’ worth of petrol supply, 29 days’ worth of jet fuel and 32 days’ worth of diesel, and will open its fuel reserves for the first time since 2022, according to ABC news. Morgan Stanley says extended tensions could affect diesel supply for Australian coal mine production, further stimulating seaborne prices and benefitting Chinese coal producers. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-19 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share