Wood Mackenzie: LNG carriers face compliance-driven fleet bifurcation as EU maritime carbon costs reach US$1,256/tonne by 2030 in International Shipping News 04/06/2026 The engine type fitted to an LNG carrier when it was built is now the single most important factor in its compliance cost exposure. For a growing share of the global fleet, the numbers are turning against them, according to new analysis from Wood Mackenzie. The LNG shipping fleet is splitting into two. On one side, modern vessels fitted with ME-GI engines are generating the lowest methane slip and the lowest carbon compliance costs on routes to Europe. On the other hand, older steam turbine and DFDE vessels are accumulating compliance liabilities that are beginning to outweigh their commercial utility. That split is the direct consequence of five maritime emissions frameworks now simultaneously in force or approaching formal adoption. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), FuelEU Maritime, the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF), the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII), and the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) are not calibrated equally across vessel types. The difference is already showing up in freight economics. The EU ETS reached 100% emissions coverage from January 2026, completing a phase-in that began at 40% in 2024. Methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are now included alongside CO₂. For LNG vessels with low-pressure propulsion systems such as DFDE, methane slip is no longer an environmental compliance consideration. It is a cost, calculated per unit of unburned gas escaping the engine, with EU Allowance prices at US$75.0/tCO₂e in May 2026 and averaging US$72.0/tCO₂e in 2024. “Owners who invested in DFDE vessels expecting them to be their compliance answer are facing a more uncomfortable reality,” said Itzel Torruco, Research Analyst – LNG Freight, Wood Mackenzie. “Under EU rules from 2030, a DFDE ship on a European route faces penalties that make it commercially unattractive to charter