FX Daily: Risk resilience and month-end flows restraining USD in Daily Currencies Ratings 28/04/2026 USD: Struggling to shine Iran’s proposed interim ceasefire deal, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear talks, has been met with little enthusiasm in Washington, according to the latest reports. That is pushing markets back into a higher-uncertainty regime, with oil prices staying well-supported. In theory, this should be a favourable environment for the dollar, yet USD has found only limited support so far. We see two reasons. First, US equities continue to show remarkable resilience, and corrections in RoW stock markets have also not been dramatic. That remains a key missing link for a sustained dollar rally; EUR/USD, like many other USD crosses, currently shows a higher beta to global equities than to oil prices or rate differentials. Second, month‑end flows should be acting as a drag on the dollar, given relative US equity outperformance in April. Against that backdrop, markets have reverted to favouring high‑beta commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Norwegian krone, and the Canadian dollar. These currencies, however, remain vulnerable to disappointing earnings from US tech firms this week, to which US equity indices appear more sensitive than to war headlines. Once month‑end flows roll off in the coming days, barring tangible progress in negotiations, we would expect USD gains to accelerate. For today, some focus will be on consumer confidence figures, although a wait‑and‑see approach ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision and big tech earnings (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta) could keep volatility in USD crosses somewhat contained. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan held rates, as expected, at 0.75%. The 6-3 vote marks the most significant divergence seen during Kazuo Ueda’s tenure as Governor, indicating increased momentum towards policy normalisation. Market participants currently estimate a 74% probability of an interest rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting, scheduled for 16 June. Francesco Pesole EUR: Rising hawkishness ahead of ECB day EUR/USD is trading around 0.5% below our estimate of short‑term fair value. As discussed above, global equities currently carry the highest beta in our model and, when combined with supportive rate differentials, are offsetting the negative impact of higher oil prices. As discussed in our ECB cheat sheet, we don’t expect the Governing Council to push back against a largely expected hike this summer. However, market expectations have grown more hawkish in the past week due to higher oil prices, increasing the risk that this hawkish bar may not be met by a still relatively cautious ECB. Still, a material dovish surprise is needed to bring EUR/USD sustainably below 1.170 unless relative optimism around a resolution in the Gulf fades. Francesco Pesole HUF: First NBH meeting since elections will focus on new forward guidance Hungary remains the number one story in the CEE space, even more than two weeks after the elections. Today will be the first meeting of the National Bank of Hungary since the elections. We expect, in line with the consensus, that rates will remain unchanged at 6.25%; the focus will be mainly on the forward guidance and how much it has changed since the last meeting in March. Of course, on one hand, the energy shock and the US-Iran conflict continue to push inflation up. On the other hand, we have