China Sources Wheat from Argentina in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 20/02/2026 China’s wheat import program has historically been concentrated mostly on Canada and Australia, which together account for roughly 70% of total volumes. Signal Ocean Platform flow data mirrors this concentration on the freight side. Approximately 70% of China-bound wheat shipments move on Panamax vessels, with around 20% carried on Supramax vessels. Argentina is entering the Chinese wheat market, adding origin diversity to an otherwise concentrated supplier base. Approximately 107,000 tons are scheduled to ship in the coming weeks, marking the first cargoes following China’s updated quarantine registration approvals. Of this volume, 65,000 tons are expected to load at Timbúes under COFCO’s program, with two additional cargoes of 20,000 and 22,000 tons listed from Bahía Blanca under Cargill. The timing coincides with Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest. Production is projected at approximately 27.5–27.8 million tons, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and USDA. Exports are forecast at around 17.5 million tons. Although China is the world’s largest wheat producer, it regularly supplements its domestic supply with imports, which in recent years have ranged from roughly 6 to over 12 million tons annually. At current volumes, Argentina’s participation does not materially change the existing Panamax and Supramax percentage shares. However, if buyers adopt smaller parcel sizes or adjust scheduling, Supramax utilization could gradually increase. A key operational factor is Argentina’s inland export system — most agricultural exports transit the Paraná–Paraguay waterway to the Rosario hub, where draft limitations can require partial loading at deeper-water ports. Overall, Argentina’s entry into China’s wheat supplier base is unlikely to materially alter the core structure of the trade as the Panamax vessel size segment remains favored. Future shifts in the Panamax–Supramax balance will depend on river conditions, parcel-size decisions, and the scale of Argentine exports from 2026 onward. Freight Market Overview Despite the Chinese New Year period, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed strength, recovering to nearly 2,000 points after dipping to 1,900 points mid-last week. The index currently indicates robust momentum, showing an exceptional +160% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last year. While the Capesize segment saw a downward correction, it is still firmer than it was a week ago. C5TC earnings (BCI 180) notably fell below $25k/d, although this segment maintains an outstanding 290% upward movement on an annual percentage basis. Freight Atlantic Capesize | Weaker C3 Tubarao–Qingdao / C17 Saldanha Bay–Qingdao Capesize — C3 / C17 Open in Platform → Capesize C3 C17 The rate for the Tubarao to Qingdao route, while dropping below $24/ton, is indicated mid-week at around $23.50/mt. This compares to the $23/ton noted in our last dry market monitor. Furthermore, the year-on-year upward trend strengthened, rising from 34% in the previous week to 38%. The Saldanha Bay–Qingdao rates held the sentiment of the previous week of around $17/mt (+46% YoY). Panamax | Firmer P7 USG–Qingdao grain ($/mt) / P8 Santos–Qingdao ($/mt) Panamax — P7 / P8 Open in Platform → Panamax P7 P8 Rates for the USG–Qingdao and Santos–Qingdao routes remain firm, with both seeing an annual increase of approximately 20% from 17% in the previous week. The USG–Qingdao rate